Episode summary
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: Global AI Supercycle (Podcast)
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 41 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Tom Orlik, Mike Shepard, Brian Moynihan, Dani Burger, John Tozzi
Summary
Bloomberg Economics chief economist Tom Orlik argued that AI could significantly disrupt labor markets, but the scale and timing remain uncertain. Using task-based modeling across countries, he said AI could eventually affect as many as 380 million workers worldwide, with white-collar jobs such as coding, accounting and trading more exposed than hairdressing or other human-touch services. He said the near term still looks different: there is limited evidence of widespread job loss today, even as demand rises for people who build, train and deploy AI systems and for workers constructing data centers.
The discussion then turned to the market and policy clash around AI. A Bloomberg technology editor said the Trump administration views AI as a strategic race with China and has rejected calls for an industrywide slowdown, even as major tech names and chipmakers sold off on worries about slower frontier-model development. He also described Microsoft’s attempt to shape the debate with a long manifesto and noted skepticism on Wall Street that companies will follow through on safety promises.
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said the bank is using and funding AI, but wants guardrails, especially around autonomous agents and liability. Later, health care reporter John Tozzi said patients often win appeals against insurance prior authorization denials, highlighting how hard it can be to get approvals despite high overturn rates.
Key takeaways
- Tom Orlik said Bloomberg Economics’ upper-end estimate suggests AI could significantly affect as many as 380 million workers worldwide.
- Orlik said white-collar jobs are more exposed to AI disruption, while hairdressers and sports coaches appear comparatively safer.
- The technology editor said the White House sees AI as a race with China and treats safety concerns as secondary to staying ahead.
- Brian Moynihan said Bank of America believes AI is a "supercycle," but wants the pace to slow and autonomous agents kept in control.
- John Tozzi said patients often win insurance appeals, with some plans overturning denials nine out of ten times or more.
Notable quotes
“The I revolution is going to be hitting the white collar workers hard, right”
“whoever wins in AI, uh, wins”
“the good news is, um, everybody sees that the pace of this change has to be absorbed”
How the episode opens
This is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanback. And just mention with Alexis Christofferson for Carol Massar and Tim Stenbeck, who will be back tomorrow at the Futureproof Conference in Huntington Beach, California.
And, Alexis, we've been talking so much about, I mean, we do pretty much every day, right? Yeah. But just looking at today the basket of Mag seven stocks that we have in the terminal, it's actually up slightly of up 4/10 of a percent, which might be a little bit of a surprise.
But that of course houses those mag seven stocks like Nvidia and other companies. But still, if you look at a year to date basis, the Nasdaq 100 is up about 16%. And that basket of Mag seven stocks trailing that only up about six 7% relative to that, just because a lot of the plays have been more in the memory space and other chip makers.
But of course, we have that other impact we're talking about economically when it comes to, um, how does this transition to jobs and apparently the fear of people worried about losing. Everybody wants to know, okay, what is I going to do to my life, my pocketbook, to my job, and how that affects your career, your families, your livelihood? And so who better to bring in than Tom Orlik, Bloomberg Economics chief economist, joining us from Washington, D.C..
And you have a new report that you put out today. Walk us through this about this AI apocalypse, potentially for millions of workers. And you ask, you pose that as a question and you're seeing the reality, uh, potentially.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai regulation
- ai development slowdown
- data center boom
- tech stock selloff
- productivity
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BAC
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- Bank of America
- Bloomberg
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: Global AI Supercycle (Podcast)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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