Episode summary
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: US Midterms Kick Off (Podcast)
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Rick Davis, Kunjan Sobhani, Wayne Sanders, Bill Allison
Summary
The episode centered on two big election-day questions: how reliable prediction markets and polls really are, and what the midterms could mean for control of Congress, defense spending, and the technology buildout behind AI. Rick Davis argued that prediction markets are being overread, because they are heavily driven by polling that is itself noisy, shrinking in sample quality, and often built on turnout assumptions that may already be wrong. He said the polling environment still points to Democratic momentum and forecasted a blue wave with Democrats winning both the House and the Senate.
The discussion then turned to semiconductors and AI infrastructure, where the host and Kunjan Sobhani focused on AMD’s stronger-than-expected revenue outlook and what it says about continued demand for data center chips. Sobhani said the hyperscalers are still spending, but funding is becoming more selective and the pace of data center buildout is facing more scrutiny from power, infrastructure, and geopolitical constraints. He also said AMD’s political exposure is limited because its revenue base is still small relative to the overall market.
Wayne Sanders argued that a Democratic win would pressure the defense budget and could complicate programs tied to the Trump administration’s reconciliation strategy. Bill Allison said this is already the most expensive election in U.S. history, with ad spending driven by the stakes of congressional control, while money from super PACs, crypto, and wealthy donors has flooded into the cycle in increasingly transactional ways.
Key takeaways
- Rick Davis said prediction markets are only as good as the polling data beneath them, and that current turnout models are likely off.
- Davis forecast a blue wave, with Democrats winning both the House and the Senate by good margins.
- Kunjan Sobhani said AMD’s guidance points to continued hyperscaler spending, even as data-center funding becomes more selective.
- Sobhani said AMD still has limited direct political exposure because its data-center revenue base remains in the single digits of market share.
- Wayne Sanders said a Democratic win would likely lower the defense top line toward roughly 1.1 to 1.15 trillion dollars.
- Bill Allison said campaign spending is surging because money follows power, and the 2026 cycle has already surpassed 12 billion dollars in ads.
Notable quotes
“the prediction markets are very popular right now, and I wait. I see them being used, especially in the media”
“I think that that that I always look back to is like, how did we get to that point”
“I think it's going to be a blue wave if that's the yeah, maybe blue tsunami”
“the scale of the beat is not as high that I would expect such an initial reaction”
“the demand is still there. Uh, I think in what we have heard so far, there are now, I wouldn't say any thesis has changed”
How the episode opens
This is Bloomberg Businessweek daily reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy, plus global business, finance and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Businessweek daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stanback. Yesterday, my my desk Rick Davis walks by and I said, Rick, come over here.
What do you think of prediction markets? Uh, when it comes to predicting who could win certain elections, he said, we really should slow our role when it comes to these things and not look at them as if they're going to be fact. Okay.
We'll see tomorrow. Rick Davis is here now. He knows about campaigns.
He was national campaign manager of John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign. He's now a partner at Stone Court Capital, a contributor to Bloomberg Politics. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio.
Are we wrong to to give credence to prediction markets and in terms of how these elections are going to shake out? Yeah, I, um. My own view is, uh.
It depends on what you mean by credence, right? I mean, the prediction markets are very popular right now, and I wait. I see them being used, especially in the media is, hey, you know, uh, there's a there's a prediction of 80% chance that, uh, somebody is going to get elected.
Uh, it's Amy Acton in Ohio, for example. Right, versus Vivek Ramaswami. Yeah.
80%. Right. And, and but that's not exactly how the prediction markets work.
Right. It's it's an 8 in 10 chance that under a hundred different scenarios is going to come up enough that that that person in acting could get elected. And, and I think that that that I always look back to is like, how did we get to that point.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us midterm elections
- campaign ad spending
- early voting
- cost of living
- ai job uncertainty
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Stonecourt Capital
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Businessweek Daily: US Midterms Kick Off (Podcast)” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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