Episode summary
Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - November 6th, 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec
Summary
The show focused on how prediction markets, retail investing platforms, and game design are reshaping the way people price risk and make decisions. The host opened with the 2026 midterms, where traders on Kalshi were described as highly accurate before and during election night, and the discussion turned to how markets aggregate information faster than polls and public equities. Nicole Kagan argued that the value of prediction markets is not just picking winners, but pricing probabilities, hedging policy risk, and revealing how traders react as new information arrives.
A second segment with Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma centered on Anthropic’s upcoming IPO, Robinhood’s push to win a larger retail allocation, and the company’s growing agentic AI tools. Verma said retail should be treated as a first-class citizen in IPOs, that customer engagement remains strong, and that prediction markets have become a meaningful business line, with non-sports contracts rising and annualized revenue now above $500 million.
The final conversation with Bing Gordon and Khloe Gordon explored how video games teach product makers to build habit, social interaction, and feedback loops. They argued that technology shifts from consoles to mobile to AI change the medium, but not the core human motivations that make products stick.
Key takeaways
- Nicole Kagan said Kalshi was directionally accurate in 479 of 487 processed midterm races, or about 98%+, before polls closed.
- Kagan argued prediction markets are most useful as probability engines and risk-hedging tools, not just as binary election picks.
- Shiv Verma said Robinhood wants Anthropic to give retail investors a larger slice, arguing retail is already 20% to 25% of U.S. equity market activity.
- Verma said Robinhood’s prediction markets business is now at a little over $500 million in annualized revenue and about 30% non-sports.
- Bing Gordon said AI is the fastest technological takeoff he has seen, while Khloe Gordon warned that outsourcing creative craft can make entertainment worse.
Notable quotes
“what markets are providing to you is a probability of an event happening right”
“retail customers should be allowed to participate. They should have a great experience”
“about 30% is non-sports, and that's up from 15% just a quarter ago”
“the most important reason that gamers come back tomorrow is for social interaction and cooperation instead of competition and productivity”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
Hi everyone, welcome to the Bloomberg Business Week weekend podcast. It was a big week. Of course it was.
We had the US midterm elections and in a seismic political shift, Democrats swept into power and are now in control of the US Congress. The vote serving as a referendum on the Trump administration's handling of the cost of living and the US war in Iran. For Wall Street, stocks originally sold off following the vote Tuesday night, then rallied Wednesday.
Not everything. Semiconductor names were lower, but then you hit Thursday and the tech sector sold off more broadly. Investors increasingly concerned that tighter restrictions on data center construction could slow AI spending.
Overall, the focus now turns to what a democratic stronghold could mean on everything in the business and investing world. from the AI data center buildout, the environment, geopolitics, the regulatory scene on things like AI and social media, on prediction markets, on crypto, and a whole heck of a lot more. We also had a monthly jobs report on Friday.
All the details can be found on the Bloomberg and at Bloomberg.com.
On prediction markets, specifically the midterms this year, big business for prediction markets. How well though did they do in actually anticipating what happened? Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kshi, breaks down the trading activity surrounding the midterms, what the numbers revealed, and what this election showed us about the growing influence of prediction markets.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- business and finance
- global technology
- politics
- economics
- weekly news roundup
Watch the episode
Watch “Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - November 6th, 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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