Episode summary
Fears Grow for a Return to War Between US and Iran | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Edward Fishman, Aaron Mulvihill, Kurt Wagner, Nancy Cook
Summary
Edward Fishman argued that the US and Iran are now locked in a conflict over the Strait of Hormuz, not just nuclear weapons or regime change. He said the war that began in February has shifted as closure of the waterway imposed pressure on the global economy, and he described the dispute as a fight over whether Iran can keep control of the chokepoint. Fishman also said Iran sees the strait as a strategic deterrent and as a potential $40 billion annuity from fees, making any compromise difficult.
Aaron Mulvihill said markets are still looking through the Iran conflict because the bigger long-term force is artificial intelligence. He pointed to strong enthusiasm around AI, ongoing IPO activity, and opportunities in private markets and real estate, while warning that investors face wide dispersion within the market. He said the Magnificent 7 are no longer the only winners, with semiconductors, memory companies, and infrastructure names benefiting from the AI buildout.
Kurt Wagner said Mark Zuckerberg is trying to turn Meta’s AI spending into real revenue through APIs, cloud services, and consumer products tied to glasses and assistants. Nancy Cook then shifted to politics, arguing that Democratic infighting in Maine and Michigan is complicating the party’s effort to retake Congress, with money and candidate selection becoming major obstacles.
Key takeaways
- Fishman said the US-Iran fight is now centered on the Strait of Hormuz, which he called the key unresolved issue.
- Fishman said Iran views Hormuz as both a deterrent and a possible $40 billion annuity, making concessions unlikely.
- Mulvihill said AI, not geopolitics, is driving the broader market outlook, with real estate and infrastructure offering non-AI alternatives.
- Mulvihill said the AI trade is broadening beyond the Magnificent 7 to semis, memory, and supply-chain beneficiaries.
- Wagner said Meta is trying to justify massive AI capex by selling APIs, cloud capacity, and consumer AI products.
- Cook said Democratic infighting and weak vetting in Maine could hurt the party’s Senate chances and fundraising momentum.
Notable quotes
“I think that there's a fundamental irreconcilable difference between the United States and Iran and that is what is the status of the straight of Hormuz moving forward”
“I think this is a war. I mean, it's a low simmering war that that doesn't have a clean ending and may not”
“Iran's closure of the straight of Hormuz was imposing so much pressure on the global economy and on the US economy in particular”
“there's enormous opportunities for stock pickers”
“we're seeing this trend broaden where it's not just the mag 7 now but the semiconductor companies the memory companies”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy.
Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio. Edward Fishman is back with us.
He is senior fellow and director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations. He's also author of the New York Times bestseller, Choke Points, American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.
He's a perfect voice for us. Ed, thank you so much for coming back on uh here. As I keep saying and uh Anna, one of our producers saying we what is this like when we were talking about in our planning call conflict, denuclearization, a war, tough peace talks.
Um hard to know where we really are in this situation and we have days where the markets look through it and some days they don't. Where are we in your view when it comes to the US war with Iran? So look, I think that there's a fundamental irreconcilable difference between the United States and Iran and that is what is the status of the straight of Hormuz moving forward.
Uh you know this war when the United States and Israel started it in February was clearly aimed at regime change. Uh when it became apparent that that was not going to happen. Uh the United States sort of paired back its intentions to try to get denuclearization.
But I think it became apparent that Iran's closure of the straight of Hormuz was imposing so much pressure on the global economy and on the US economy in particular that it has really become a conflict over that issue and even the memorandum of understanding the deal uh that was signed last month it left some serious ambiguities over the future status of the straight form and I think that's what's bubbling to the surface right now the US and Iran really fighting over what the status of the strait will be moving forward.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us-iran tensions
- geopolitical risk
- mkt reaction tech trade ipos earnings
- meta ai pay-to-use pricing
- us political infighting and midterms
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- META
- JPMorgan Asset Management
- Meta
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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