Episode summary
Global AI Supercycle Raises Productivity Questions | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 42 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Tom Orlik, Mike Shepard, Brian Moynihan, Dani Burger, John Tozzi
Summary
Bloomberg Economics chief economist Tom Orlik argued that AI could significantly disrupt labor markets without yet showing broad job losses in the data. His estimates suggest as many as 380 million workers worldwide could see their jobs significantly impacted, with white-collar roles like coders, accountants, traders and economists more exposed than blue-collar and human-touch jobs such as hairdressers and sports coaches.
Orlik said the current evidence still shows limited displacement, even as demand rises for people building models, training them in specialized fields, and constructing data centers. He warned that the near-term picture may look more like a productivity and investment boom than a labor shock, but that the larger effects could emerge over the next three to four years. He also raised the possibility of a boom-bust cycle similar to the dotcom era if valuations run ahead of profits.
Mike Shepard described the political fight over AI safety and speed, with the Trump administration resisting calls for an industrywide slowdown and framing AI as central to staying ahead of China. The debate is already affecting semiconductor stocks and the data center buildout, even as OpenAI, Anthropic and Microsoft signal they want stronger controls without stopping investment.
Brian Moynihan said Bank of America is benefiting from AI-related activity but favors self-regulation, saying companies should slow down autonomous systems and keep humans in the loop. Later, John Tozzi reported that patients who appeal insurance denials often win, sometimes about half the time, highlighting how prior authorization remains both burdensome and contestable.
Key takeaways
- Tom Orlik said Bloomberg Economics estimates up to 380 million workers worldwide could be significantly impacted by AI if the technology reaches full potential.
- Orlik argued that white-collar jobs are more exposed than blue-collar and human-touch roles, with coders, accountants and traders among the most vulnerable.
- Mike Shepard said the Trump administration sees AI development as inseparable from the race with China and is rejecting an across-the-board slowdown.
- Brian Moynihan said Bank of America is using AI in a controlled way and wants companies to keep humans in the loop before deploying autonomous agents.
- John Tozzi reported that patients who appeal prior authorization denials often win about half the time, showing that many denials are overturned.
Notable quotes
“at the top end, if we look at AI hitting its full potential, um, we're looking at hundreds of millions of workers, perhaps as many as 380 million workers”
“The AI revolution is going to be hitting the white collar workers hard, right”
“He is saying that whoever wins in AI uh wins”
“I think they should slow down, but you know, I'm not I'm not the person running these companies”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc.
I'm Jess Minton with Alexis Christopherus in for Carol Masser and Tim Stenc who will be back tomorrow at the future proof conference in Huntington Beach, California. And Alexis, we've been talking so much about AI. I mean, we do pretty much every day, right?
But just looking at today, the basket of mag seven stocks that we have in the terminal is actually up slightly of up 4/10en of a percent. uh which might be a little bit of a surprise but that of course is houses those MAG7 stocks like Nvidia and other companies but still if you look at a year-to- date basis the NASDAQ 100's up about 16% and that basket of mag seven stocks trailing that only up around 6 7% relative to that just because a lot of the plays have been more in the memory space and other chip makers but of course we have that other impact we're talking about economically when it comes to um how does this transition to jobs and apparently the fear of people worried about losing
Everybody wants to know okay What is AI going to do to my life, to my pocketbook, to my job, — Right? And how that affects your career, your families, your livelihood. And so, who better to bring in than Tom Orlic Bloomberg, economics chief economist joining us from Washington DC. And you have a new report that you put out today. Walk us through this about this AI apocalypse potentially for millions of workers.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai slowdown
- technology stock selloff
- data center boom
- ai productivity
- regulation and industry policy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BAC
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
- Bank of America
Watch the episode
Watch “Global AI Supercycle Raises Productivity Questions | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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