Episode summary
Midterms Notch Records on Early Voting, Ad Spending | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Rick Davis, Bill Allison, Kunjan Sobhani, Wayne Sanders
Summary
The episode centered on how to interpret election data, arguing that prediction markets and polls can be useful directional tools but are far from precise forecasting instruments. A guest pushed back on treating prediction-market odds as hard fact, saying the models lean heavily on polling and that polling itself is weakened by shrinking sample sizes, online weighting, and turnout assumptions that can quickly become outdated. He argued that early voting has already made 2024-style turnout models unreliable and said the structural environment favors Democrats in midterms, leading him to expect a blue wave with Democrats winning both the House and the Senate.
The discussion then moved to semiconductors and AI demand after AMD issued a revenue outlook above estimates. An analyst said the strong guide suggests data-center demand remains robust, but he cautioned that the market’s reaction looked outsized. He described AMD’s Helios ramp as an execution test and said AI chip demand is still strong across Nvidia, AMD and others, though funding is becoming more selective and the pace of data-center buildout may face more scrutiny.
The final segment covered defense spending and campaign finance. A defense analyst said a blue wave would likely push the defense topline closer to $1.1 trillion to $1.15 trillion, while record ad spending and big-money donors showed how much power and money are concentrated in this cycle.
Key takeaways
- A guest argued prediction markets are built on shaky polling foundations and should not be treated as hard election forecasts.
- The same guest said early-voting totals have already broken turnout assumptions, making 2024-style models unreliable.
- An analyst said AMD’s stronger revenue outlook points to continued data-center demand, but the market may be overreacting.
- The analyst said AI spending remains intact, though funding is becoming more selective and buildout risks are rising.
- A defense analyst said a blue wave would likely keep the Pentagon topline around $1.1 trillion to $1.15 trillion rather than $1.5 trillion.
- A campaign finance reporter said the election’s record ad spending reflects how money follows power in closely contested races.
Notable quotes
“We really should slow our role when it comes to these things and and not look at them as if they're going to be fact”
“They're wrong most of the time, right? And so, like, when you see a poll that says, you know, plus three or minus three for Amy Actton, that's an even race”
“We've already had 10 and a half million more people show up in the early voting than showed up in 22”
“I think it's going to be a blue wave if that's the, you know, com maybe blue tsunami, right”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens.
The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenac. Yesterday, I'm at my desk. Rick Davis walks by and I said, "Rick, come over here.
What do you think of prediction markets uh when it comes to predicting who could win certain elections? He said, "We really should slow our role when it comes to these things and and not look at them as if they're going to be fact. Okay, we'll see tomorrow.
Rick Davis is here now. He knows about campaigns. He was national campaign manager of John McCain's 2008 presidential campaign.
He's now a partner at Stonecourt Capital, a contributor to Bloomberg Politics. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio. Are we wrong to to give credence to prediction markets in in terms of how these elections are going to shake out?
Yeah, I I my own view is uh it depends on what you mean by credence, right? I mean the prediction markets are very popular right now and the way I see them being used especially in the media is hey you know uh there's a there's a a prediction of 80% chance that uh somebody's going to get elected
That's Amy Actton in Ohio for example versus Ramma 80% right now — And and but that's not exactly how the prediction markets work right it's it's a eight and 10 chance that under a hundred different scenarios is going to come up enough that that that person in acting could get elected and and the thing that that that I always look back to is like how did we get to that point?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- midterm elections
- early voting
- campaign ad spending
- cost of living
- ai job uncertainty
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Stonecourt Capital
Watch the episode
Watch “Midterms Notch Records on Early Voting, Ad Spending | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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