Episode summary
Mild Inflation Print Boosts Fed-Cut Bets | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec, Ed Ludlow · Guests: Adam Posen, Christina Stembel, Todd Gillespie, stacy-marie ishmael
Summary
A mild January CPI reading gave markets a short-term lift, but the central argument on the show was that one soft print does not change the bigger macro risks. The guest argued that investors are overweighting the chance of three Fed cuts this year, and that the more important story is a still-solid labor market, possible fiscal stimulus, tariff pass-through, and tighter migration policy that could keep inflation elevated into 2026. He also said the Fed could become less responsive if political pressure pushes it toward easier policy despite sticky prices.
The discussion broadened to demographics and AI, with the guest saying the next one to two years could bring labor-force strain from fewer migrants and weaker support for child care and health care, while the longer-run effect of AI is unclear. He expects productivity gains, but also some unemployment pressure, especially for younger workers.
The episode also touched on Valentine’s Day spending, with Farmgirl Flowers saying orders are running a little above last year and customers want more personalized bouquets rather than standard red roses. Later segments covered Goldman Sachs’ Kathy Ruemmler, SpaceX’s possible dual-class IPO structure, and Coinbase’s bounce as traders look for signs the worst may be over for crypto.
Key takeaways
- The guest said the market is too aggressive in pricing three Fed cuts this year, given still-solid employment and possible fiscal stimulus.
- He warned inflation could surprise to the upside and potentially exceed 4% by the end of 2026 if tariffs, migration limits and fiscal checks filter through.
- He said the biggest realistic U.S. risk over the next 3 to 12 months is inflation, not a sharp unemployment downturn.
- Farmgirl Flowers said Valentine’s Day orders are up a bit year over year and customers want more personalized arrangements, not standard red roses.
- The company said Saturday delivery is difficult and risky, and most customers prefer Friday delivery or earlier in the week.
- The crypto discussion framed Coinbase’s rally as a sign investors hope the worst is over, not proof that fundamentals have fully recovered.
Notable quotes
“I think the pricing of three Fed cuts this year is much too many”
“I think we're going to end up pretty high inflation. Fed that's behind the curves”
“the realistic risk for the US in the next 3 to 12 months is probably inflation is the biggest risk”
“Women want uh a bright mixed beautiful bouquet. So, that's what we're giving our customers a lot of options on”
“Saturday deliveries are tough. So, not everybody lives in an urban enough place to receive deliveries on Saturdays”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens.
The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio. We're going to stay Tim on the US economy. We're going to broaden out as well, especially when it comes to geopolitics and the global economy.
Something we talked about with our Stu Paul yesterday.
We got a great voice to do this. Dr. Adam Posen joins us, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Uh joining us this afternoon from Washington DC. Before we broaden out, Dr. proposing. Uh, want to talk about the US economy coming off of that inflation print that we just talked about with Mike McKe. Where do you see the US economy heading?
Well, thank you for having me back, Tim. And I agree with a lot of what Mike said about what was under the hood, but the main thing I think your investor listeners should be thinking about is that if you're plus or minus 0.1.2 from expectation on any given month's print, it's not worth real information. I mean, nobody has their expectations that precise.
So, you have to look at the bigger stories. And to me, the bigger stories in the US are that we have a labor market that isn't cratering as people used to worry about that has solid retention of employment, not huge employment growth, but solid retention. We have potentially some very stimulative fiscal policies coming down the pike in that the Republican majorities in the Congress may give President Trump checks to hand out ahead of the midterm elections in November.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed rate cuts
- cpi inflation print
- tech stock weakness
- crypto market surge
- ipo share structure
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AMZN
- COIN
- GS
- Amazon.com Inc.
- Coinbase
- Goldman Sachs
- Farmgirl Flowers
- SpaceX
Watch the episode
Watch “Mild Inflation Print Boosts Fed-Cut Bets | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
-
Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Inside Jensen Huang’s Final Hours as Nvidia CEO | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Jensen Huang's Exit Kicks Off Nvidia Strategy Reset | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Special Episode: Bobby Jain on Why He Chose Millennium Again | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast: Jensen’s Nvidia Departure -
Take-Two Releasing Long-Awaited Grand Theft Auto VI Next Week | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
