Episode summary
No Peace, No War — the New US-Iran Normal | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 47 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Ray Takeyh, Seth Jones, Jay Hatfield, Seth Fiegerman, Michael Stivala
Summary
The episode centered on Bloomberg Economics’ argument that the Iran war may be settling into a fragile new equilibrium: no peace treaty, but also no active high-intensity war. The hosts and guests debated whether President Trump’s unilateral, open-ended extension of the ceasefire creates a durable “new normal,” with oil near $100, sporadic attacks, and the Strait of Hormuz as Iran’s main source of leverage. Ray Teay said the real contest is not nuclear weapons alone but Iran’s ability to disrupt maritime commerce, while Seth Jones argued that both sides now want to avoid a protracted conflict and would need diplomacy to prevent further escalation.
The market discussion focused on how investors should price that backdrop. Jay Hatfield of Infrastructure Capital Advisors argued that energy shocks are temporary because the Strait will likely reopen, and he remained bullish on equities, citing an S&P 500 target of 8,000, later implying 8,600 if rates move as expected. He favored energy infrastructure and LNG names, preferred KKR over Apollo because of its limited exposure to private credit, and called Amazon underappreciated relative to Walmart on valuation.
The show then shifted to AI and industrial energy demand. Bloomberg News’ AI editor Seth Figerman explained why Cursor and coding tools are becoming central to the AI race, and warned that Anthropic’s Mythos model is powerful enough to raise cyberattack concerns. Michael Stila of Suburban Propane said the U.S. propane market is well supplied, but he also highlighted new uses for propane in EV charging and data-center backup power as electricity demand rises.
Key takeaways
- Ray Teay said Iran’s leverage comes less from nuclear weapons than from its ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz and global maritime commerce.
- Seth Jones argued both the U.S. and Iran want to avoid a protracted war, making a diplomatic solution the likeliest path.
- Jay Hatfield said he expects the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and still sees the S&P 500 reaching 8,000, or 8,600 if rates move higher as modeled.
- Hatfield preferred KKR over Apollo because he sees KKR as having limited exposure to private credit and a stronger brand.
- Seth Figerman said AI coding remains a key battleground, but Anthropic’s Mythos model is concerning because unauthorized access could enable dangerous cyberattacks.
- Michael Stila said U.S. propane inventories are above 78 million barrels and that propane is expanding into EV charging and data-center power use.
Notable quotes
“Now there's no peace, but no active war either. this may become the new normal. A fragile ceasefire without a formal deal”
“one of the things that the Islamic Republic has learned from this crisis is they have an ability to disrupt global economies by disrupting global commerce and maritime commerce to the Gulf”
“I think both sides uh at this point don't want a protracted war”
“we do think it's a good strategy to blockade this trade. So, we were actually went long to futures when they were off 70 handles over the weekend”
“the reality is that in negotiations in general, there are uh elements that you might like to have, but at the end of the day, you know, are unrealistic”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
All right, folks. Uh we've been watching in terms of new developments on the war. It does feel like a little bit of a standstill.
Bloomberg Economics uh putting out some research and writing today that in another reversal, President Trump announced a unilateral open-ended extension of the ceasefire on the war in Iran. Now there's no peace, but no active war either. this may become the new normal.
A fragile ceasefire without a formal deal with tensions simmering, sporadic flare-ups, and oil near $100. Is that kind of our new reality going forward?
I think a lot of people would look at $100 a barrel for oil and say that is not a reality that we want to live in for a long — Not where it was at the beginning of the year, right?
About $60. Yeah.
Yeah. Big difference. So, it does feel like kind of we're at a standstill of sorts heading towards that new normal.
We have so many questions for our next guest. Back with us is Ray Teay. senior fellow for Middle East studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, author of several books including the last sha uh America, Iran and the fall of the Palavi Pavlavi, excuse me, dynasty and guardians of the revolution, Iran and the world in the age of uh the Ayatollas.
Former senior adviser in Iran at the State Department, a fellow at Yale and the Middle East Center at UC Berkeley.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us-iran ceasefire extension
- middle east escalation risk
- iran nuclear program
- strat of hormuz shipping
- oil price outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SPH
- Suburban Propane
Watch the episode
Watch “No Peace, No War — the New US-Iran Normal | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
More from Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
-
Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - November 13th, 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Inside Jensen Huang’s Final Hours as Nvidia CEO | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Jensen Huang's Exit Kicks Off Nvidia Strategy Reset | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Special Episode: Bobby Jain on Why He Chose Millennium Again | Bloomberg Businessweek -
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily Podcast: Jensen’s Nvidia Departure -
Take-Two Releasing Long-Awaited Grand Theft Auto VI Next Week | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
