Episode summary
Nvidia’s Upbeat Sales Forecast Shows AI Boom Remains Strong | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 57 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Ed Ludlow, Jay Goldberg, Mandeep Singh, Anurag Rana, Libby Cantrill, Dan Cancel
Summary
Nvidia’s earnings and outlook dominated the show, with the host and guests arguing that the company’s latest guidance is another sign that AI infrastructure spending is still running hot. Nvidia said fiscal first-quarter revenue should be $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion, above Wall Street’s $72.78 billion estimate, while fourth-quarter data center revenue came in at $62.3 billion and adjusted gross margin reached 75.2%. The guests said the print eased bubble fears, but they focused less on demand than on whether Nvidia can keep margins near software-like levels while memory costs rise.
The discussion centered on how Nvidia is selling more complete systems, not just GPUs, and how that supports pricing power. One guest said hyperscalers were just over 50% of fourth-quarter data center revenue, but also pointed to growing business from neoclouds and other customers. The guests also noted that Nvidia’s guidance excluded China compute revenue, even as the company disclosed a new U.S. license to ship small amounts of H200 chips to specific China-based customers.
The episode also broadened into software and macro themes. Salesforce’s weaker stock reaction was framed as part of a broader AI disruption story, where non-AI spending is under pressure and investors worry about model providers eating into enterprise software. Later, a policy segment argued that President Trump’s address leaned more on performance and stock-market messaging than on concrete affordability policy, while a geopolitical update covered the fallout from a deadly Cuba-related speedboat clash.
Key takeaways
- The host and analysts said Nvidia’s $76.44 billion to $79.56 billion first-quarter revenue guide was the clearest evidence yet that AI spending remains strong.
- One analyst said the biggest near-term question is margins, because memory costs are rising while Nvidia still guides for about 75% gross margins.
- The guests said Nvidia’s business is shifting toward selling whole systems, helping it preserve pricing power versus rivals that sell chips as components.
- The host and an analyst said hyperscalers were just over 50% of fourth-quarter data center revenue, but Nvidia is trying to broaden demand through neocloud customers.
- A Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said Salesforce faces pressure from both AI-driven disruption fears and weaker non-AI spending.
- A policy guest said President Trump’s speech offered more political theater than a detailed affordability roadmap, with little likely legislative movement before the midterms.
Notable quotes
“My concerns are they're capacity constrained and I think that's just going to limit the amount of upside that they can deliver to revenue for the next few quarters”
“the margin question is a big one. They make a lot of money money from memory”
“I mean look at Nvidia's growth in uh the last fiscal quarter it was around uh mid60%. They're pointing to 77% growth in their fiscal 1Q”
“we expect supply constraints to be a headwind to gaming in the first quarter fiscal 2027 and beyond”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
I know Ed Lello and Jay Goldberg are watching uh clear screens closely. I want to bring both of them in as we do await these earnings. Ed Lello is the co-host of Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg TV.
He joins us from the San Francisco bureau. And Jay Goldberg is with us too. He's senior analyst semiconductors and electronics at Seapport Research Partners.
He's still the only uh analyst on the Bloomberg terminal who has a sell rating on Nvidia. Uh Jay, is it is it lonely in that corner?
It's getting less lonely by the day. — Is it? How come? — I don't I mean in in Q4, November, December, I had a lot of newfound friends. — Okay. — Um right. — Okay. Well, we'll see. — I don't think it was me being right. It was just I think the market is sort of rotating out of AI or d-risking a little bit. Yeah, I'll take it.
Okay, we'll see. And we'll see what the numbers say today. Is there is there a chance that and look, I know that I don't want you to get in trouble with compliance or anything, but I ask you this every quarter.
Can you hear anything from Nvidia today? Uh, and I'm going to have to interrupt you if we do get those numbers. Uh, are are we going are you going to hear anything from Nvidia today or could you hear that would make you change your view to at least neutral or buy?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- ai compute capex
- nvidia earnings outlook
- chip market sentiment
- software disruption
- market reaction to state of the union
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- SNOW
- CRM
- Nvidia
- Bloomberg
- Bloomberg Intelligence
- Snowflake
- Salesforce
- Seaport Research Partners
- PIMCO
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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