Episode summary
Oil Traders Weigh Surplus, Geopolitical Risks to Start 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 13 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Tim Moore, Kevin Crowley
Summary
Oil entered 2026 under pressure because a large expected supply surplus is still outweighing geopolitical risk. The guest said Wall Street is almost unanimously bearish, Brent is around $60 a barrel and WTI is in the high $50s, with the IEA expecting about 3.8 million barrels a day of excess supply this year. He tied that oversupply to growth in non-OPEC producers, including the Americas, Canada, Brazil, Guyana and US shale, while noting that lower prices have not stopped US output from climbing.
The guest argued that the market should tighten by midyear as the surplus gets worked through, which could lift prices into the low $60s. He said OPEC+ is likely to keep quotas unchanged in the first quarter, and that a tighter trading band would help producers plan spending and drilling. The host and guest also discussed how US oil companies are emphasizing capital discipline, shareholder returns and efficiency gains rather than aggressive production growth.
Tim Moore added that clean energy stocks could still benefit in 2026 from an electricity shortfall driven by AI data centers, reshoring, EV charging and other load growth. He said utilities may need to spend much more on transmission and distribution, while some renewable names still have room to outperform even if low oil prices soften the incentive for new technology.
Key takeaways
- The guest said Wall Street is almost unanimously bearish on oil for 2026 because of a large supply surplus and Brent near $60 a barrel.
- The guest expects the oil market to start rebalancing by midyear, which could support prices in the low $60s.
- Tim Moore said OPEC+ is unlikely to raise first-quarter quotas, keeping supply policy cautious.
- Kevin Crowley said US shale continues to grow despite weak prices because companies have cut costs and improved drilling efficiency.
- Tim Moore argued clean energy stocks can still benefit from an electricity shortfall driven by data centers and other load growth.
Notable quotes
“Wall Street is almost um unanimously bearish on oil going into 2026”
“the big the big buzzword here amongst the big oils is capital discipline”
“we think there's still room for them to do well this year if they have exposure to what we're calling the electricity shortfall”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. — You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
Oil uh when we talk about the commodity, we talked about this earlier with Bill Mclo coming off a rough year, its worst in fact since 2020 as concerns about a surplus pressured prices and we continue to see some of that pressure. You can see that one-year chart uh the movement to the downside. Geopolitical risks still out there.
Seemingly not enough though uh to stem the losses, which is kind of interesting because every time we see either war picking up in the Middle East or elsewhere around the globe, we take a look at oil and it doesn't always spike or spikes very quickly. Well, joining us live with what lies ahead for energy, the energy markets and the energy supply, uh, are Bloomberg's senior US oil reporter Kevin Crowley and Tim Moore, senior research analyst at Clear Street. He covers the clean energy transition as well as oil and gas.
So, perfect tusome to talk to. Kevin, kick it off with us. We just talked with our own Josh Saul and Mark Gungloff talking about the draw down on energy supplies that we have been seeing and that are expected to continue into 2026 and the impact it may have or is having on the climate.
But kick it off, remind us too about the world's energy supplies. Prices are low and that's because there's a lot of oil out there.
That's exactly right. Um Wall Street is almost um unanimously bearish on oil going into 2026. Um you as you said at the top there, oil dropped about 18% last year and very few people think that uh it has any room to increase from from here.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil surplus
- opec+ production caution
- geopolitical risks
- middle east oil benchmarks
- clean energy transition
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Clear Street
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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