Episode summary
S&P 500 Edges Closer to Record, Shrugging Off Bond & Oil Risks | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Ed Harrison, Laura Nahmias, Seth Fiegerman, Sumit Roy, Dylan Sloan
Summary
US stocks kept pressing higher even as bond yields climbed and oil, geopolitics, and AI-spending concerns weighed on sentiment. Ed Harrison argued the market can keep rallying because the US is in a boom, with AI and large fiscal deficits supporting earnings and stock prices even as the 10-year yield moves above 5% and the 30-year nears levels that once seemed unthinkable. He said the point where the market could really feel pressure is not just higher rates, but a rise in long-term inflation expectations that would force the Federal Reserve back into hiking mode.
The show also focused on the growing political and safety backlash around artificial intelligence. Laura Nahmias described a New York City Council hearing where whistleblowers and representatives from Google, Meta, Anthropic, and OpenAI testified about risks, while lawmakers considered bills for greater transparency and a possible kill switch. Seth Fiegerman said the tension is intensifying between rising safety concerns inside the industry and the push to take major AI companies public, especially as the Trump administration appears more focused on winning the AI race than slowing development.
Sumit Roy said Realty Income is adapting to a higher-rate world by shifting capital across geographies and leaning into credit opportunities, while still relying on defensive retail tenants. Dylan Sloan said the wealth picture is increasingly dominated by tech, with American tech billionaires driving most of the gains in the Bloomberg Billionaires Index and the top 10 now all based in the US.
Key takeaways
- Ed Harrison said equities can keep rising even with 10-year yields above 5% because AI and 6% deficits are fueling a boom.
- Harrison said the real pressure point would be long-term inflation expectations rising to 2.5%, which could force the Fed into rate hikes.
- Laura Nahmias said New York City lawmakers are weighing nearly a dozen AI bills, including transparency rules and a kill switch.
- Seth Fiegerman said the AI debate is shifting from internal warnings to public pressure as big firms move toward IPOs.
- Sumit Roy said Realty Income is steering toward Europe, Mexico, the UK, and credit investments to offset US rate pressure.
- Dylan Sloan said tech billionaires gained $845 billion through September 30, with Elon Musk alone up about $300 billion this year.
Notable quotes
“All of these whistleblowers were calling for a significant slowdown, if not a total stop to the development of these technologies”
“There are trillions and trillions of dollars that will need to be invested in this space”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc.
So, a rallying giant tech companies. We've been talking about that overshadowing a lot of concerns that to be fair have been out there. Whether it's higher bond yields, whether it's elevated oil prices, whether it's geopolitics, whether it's concerns about the AI spend. I mean,
The list goes on. — And some days the market is okay with it. Some days the market feeling it — Doesn't like it, right? It's not feeling it. Uh we've also got some renewed political upheaval in Europe and concern over public finances that did send the euro to its weakest since May of 2025. So once again, we've seen the dollar as a safe haven that's happening on Should we get to Ed Harrison?
Let's do it. — Edward Harrison, he's senior strategist. Um he is the author of the every everything risk newsletter at Bloomberg News. He is there in Washington DC. Ed, um gosh, where to begin? Uh, I feel like today, I keep saying this, that unless you're in France, um, if you're a US-based investor, you kind of feel like everything is awesome in the US. Like the US is back on, at least for today.
It does seem that way, Carol. Um, you know, uh, the NASDAQ is looking like it's going to have a new all-time high, even despite the fact that, uh, yields across the curve are going up, particularly at the long end.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- s&p 500
- treasury yields
- resilient earnings
- bond market
- oil and political risks
Companies and tickers mentioned
- O
- Realty Income Corporation
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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