Episode summary

Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge | Bloomberg Businessweek

Bloomberg Businessweek Daily · · 35 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Yelena Shulyatyeva, Gerry Doyle, Gary Evans, Ellen Wald

Tame CPI Still Spells Trouble for Fed’s Favored Inflation Gauge | Bloomberg Businessweek – Bloomberg Businessweek Daily

Summary

Core inflation looked tame in January and February, but the guests argued that the more important Fed gauge is likely to run hotter. The host and a guest said the gap between CPI and personal consumption expenditures inflation has widened, with shelter distortions, tariff pass-through into core goods, and higher oil prices all pushing the PCE measure higher than the CPI. The guest said the war-related oil shock could add about 3/10 of a percent to inflation while shaving about a tenth off GDP growth, leaving the Fed likely on hold.

The discussion then turned to the US war in Iran and the strain it is putting on energy markets, shipping, and military logistics. A defense analyst said Iran’s remaining ability to threaten the region comes from missiles, drones, naval mines, and anti-ship weapons, while the United States is facing a more open-ended strategic problem because its war aims keep shifting. The analyst also said there is little credibility to reports of drone strikes against the US West Coast.

Later, the show focused on critical minerals, especially antimony and tungsten. A company executive said United States Antimony Corporation has won a $27 million grant from the Department of War, has other funding requests pending, and sees rising demand tied to military stockpile needs. He said China remains the dominant competitor in antimony and that the industry needs price floors and more domestic buildout to reduce dependence on foreign supply.

Key takeaways

  • The guest expects PCE inflation to accelerate even if CPI stayed mild, because tariffs, shelter quirks, and oil prices are feeding through differently.
  • The guest said the Iran-related oil shock could lift inflation by 3/10 of a percent and trim GDP growth by a tenth, which argues for a Fed pause.
  • A defense analyst said Iran’s most dangerous remaining tools are missiles, drones, naval mines, and anti-ship missiles, not an immediate West Coast drone threat.
  • The host and analysts said the war’s biggest economic risk is a prolonged disruption to shipping and energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
  • United States Antimony Corporation’s CEO said the company won a $27 million Department of War grant and has $85 million of 2026 orders, versus zero a year ago.

Notable quotes

“PCE prices are going to accelerate uh on the back of this uh supply shock uh the oil prices shock and we will continue to see that”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 3:32

“So this is the data that the Fed is looking at uh for which reason they will probably stay on hold”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 3:42

“The purpose of that money is to reimburse us 20 million plus or minus for our facility in Thompson Falls”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 20:59

How the episode opens

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy.

Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio. It kind of speaks to we did get an inflation print earlier today.

An underlying US inflation, Tim, slowing in the month of February from a month earlier. It did offer some relief from price pressures before the war with Iran.

Lower prices for used cars, motor vehicle insurance that helped keep inflation in check despite higher costs for gasoline and groceries, including fresh vegetables and coffee. That was though before the war,

Which is something we talked about on our planning call. It's like who cares? Who cares?

But I keep thinking though, if we had higher inflation before the war, that shows that inflation is still persistent here in the US. So, let's see what Elena Shaliva has to say. She's senior US economist at the conference board.

She's here in studio. Good to have you here. Uh, old Bloomberg colleague.

So, fun to have you back here. Uh, even as a a guest. Um,

So excited to be here. — So, good to have you. So is it I don't know old data do we dismiss it but does it remind us that inflation continues to persist here in the US? — One thing I was looking at right away is the pass through of tariffs into core goods inflation and it was there and it was there at an accelerating pace for certain things like furniture and apparel and uh other things that where tariffs actually uh have an impact.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • cpi vs core pce
  • fed rate cuts
  • oil prices and inflation risks
  • iran defense and military strain
  • defense production act contracts

Companies and tickers mentioned

  • US Antimony
  • The Conference Board
  • Transversal Consulting
  • Atlantic Council

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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.

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