Episode summary
The Signs That Favor the Bulls in 2026 | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 7 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Vance Howard
Summary
Vance Howard said he is bullish into 2026 and that Howard Capital Management’s HCM-BuyLine is already positive, leaving the firm 100% invested after a strong 2025. He framed the model as a trend-following tool that can be wrong in the short run, but argued it keeps portfolios aligned with the broader market most of the time. Howard also pointed to seasonal data he says supports the setup: if January and the first five trading days are both up, he said there is an 83% probability 2026 finishes positive.
On geopolitics, Howard described the recent US action in Venezuela as a potential positive for markets if it pushes energy prices lower. He said West Texas Intermediate crude around $57 a barrel could ease inflation and help energy services companies, while also suggesting the move may be as much about blocking China as it is about oil and gas. He treated talk about Greenland as mostly negotiator-style noise from Donald Trump, saying investors often need to wait for actual policy.
For the rest of the year, Howard expects a technical trading market with leadership broadening beyond big tech. He said small caps, basic materials and financials are starting to improve, even as he continues to like the MAG 7 and the AI trade.
Key takeaways
- Howard said the HCM-BuyLine is positive and Howard Capital Management is 100% invested, which leaves him bullish into 2026.
- Howard said January strength matters: if the first month and the first five days are up, he cited an 83% probability that 2026 will be positive.
- Howard argued that US pressure on Venezuela could lower energy prices, reduce inflation and help energy services stocks.
- Howard said Trump’s Greenland talk is mostly negotiating theater, and investors should wait to see what actually happens.
- Howard expects a more technical market in 2026, with small caps, basic materials and financials starting to participate alongside big tech.
Notable quotes
“We're positive now. We we didn't have we uh we had a good year last year”
“I think you're going to see energy prices drop. I think you're going to see energy services company do better”
“I think people just get numb to him”
“we're 100% invested. Have been for months on end. Um I'm I'm bullish into 2026”
“I think this year, uh, Carol, I think we're going to see this is going to be a a technical trading market”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. — You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio. — Great to have back with us Vance Howard. He is CEO and portfolio manager of Howard Capital Management. Uh the firm has approximately 6 billion in assets under management and once again we find him in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Welcome, welcome. Happy New Year.
It's my favorite place to come. Me too. My two favorites. I love being here. — Well, we like having you here as well. Um, in a year where Venez Venezuela, Freddy and Slip. — That's kind of where we want to start.
Well, the point is, who to think this wasn't necessarily on our list of things to watch in 2026, but yet here we are. Um, and I think today people are saying this is going to take some time to work its way out. So maybe not so market moving and maybe not so impactful on the energy sector yet. But I'm just curious, does this factor at all in
I think it's a good thing to be quite candid. I think you're going to see energy prices drop. I think you're going to see energy services company do better. If we can drop energy prices, you know, it's going to affect inflation. So that'll bring inflation down a little bit. You know, West Texas Intermediate crude at 57 bucks a barrel.
Do you want the price to go down? — Well, since I'm not the only gas industry, yes, — A lot of your clients probably are. — Well, some are, but you know, if you're trading the energy uh the service companies, you can do quite well this year, I think. So the the reason I I asked this about it's again it's all supply and demand.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- market outlook 2026
- bull vs bear signals
- trend analysis moving averages
- equity market breadth
- hcm-buyline indicator
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Howard Capital Management
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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