Episode summary
Trump Administration Eyes All Options to Cut Oil Prices Amid War | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Jennifer Welsh, Jeff Mason, Davide Scigliuzzo, David Busch
Summary
Oil markets were the center of the episode as the hosts tracked a sharp jump in WTI and Brent after the war with Iran intensified. They said the conflict had entered its sixth day, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively paralyzed, energy prices surging, freight rates rising, and Treasury yields moving higher as traders pared back bets on Fed easing. Bloomberg Economics chief geoeconomics analyst Jenny Welch argued that if disruptions to regional energy infrastructure persist, oil could move above $100 a barrel and reach as high as $108, while markets were still pricing the shock as temporary.
Welch said the risk is not just the oil price itself but the duration of the disruption, because even limited attacks can deter tankers from using Hormuz. She also said the most likely outcome is not a Venezuela-style political transition, but either the current system persisting, a new authoritarian order, or a chaotic power vacuum. The hosts tied that to the Federal Reserve’s dilemma: higher energy prices are inflationary, but they may be impossible to ignore if the shock lasts.
The episode then pivoted to domestic politics and markets, with Bloomberg’s Jeff Mason describing Christine Nome’s removal as Homeland Security secretary as a firing driven by her inaccurate congressional testimony about a $200 million ad spend. Later segments covered private credit, where BlackRock’s loan write-down raised valuation concerns, and a market watch on Costco, where a guest said digital growth and consumer resilience would be key markers.
Key takeaways
- The hosts said WTI crude rose to $80.90 a barrel and Brent to $85.15 as war-related supply fears hit energy markets.
- Jenny Welch said sustained disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could push oil to $108 a barrel.
- Welch said markets still appear to expect only a few more days of disruption, rather than a prolonged shutdown.
- Jeff Mason said Christine Nome was fired because she told Congress something about the president that was not true.
- The private credit discussion said BlackRock’s zero valuation on a $25 million loan raises broader questions about marks and underwriting, not just the single asset.
Notable quotes
“Markets have been rocked by the war which entered its sixth day. no immediate prospect of a resolution in sight”
“in our estimation if there are going to be sustained persistent disruptions to energy facilities in the region the straight of Hermuz that could actually lead oil prices to top $100”
“the system remains in place and it's widespread and it is entrenched”
“I think it's fair to conclude that she has been toppled uh and that the president was very upset with her”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. the Bloomberg Business Week daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg radio.
We got to talk about what's going on in the energy market because that has really been a large reason um for what we are seeing in the trade today. — Okay, so I'm just going to uh GLCO on the Bloomberg terminal global commodities uh WTI crude $80.90 a barrel. Carol uh trading is higher than average significantly by about more than 25%. Year-to date it's up 41%. Uh Brent 8515 uh a barrel uh up 40% so far this year.
Yeah. And I'm just going to say uh both WTI and Brent up around 20% in just the last 5 to seven days. So essentially in the last week so we've seen incredible upward momentum understandably so about concerns about Iran and then ultimately uh the US war in Iran.
Markets have been rocked by the war which entered its sixth day. no immediate prospect of a resolution in sight. As Tim mentioned, uh really boosting a lot of uh prices in the energy sector, product prices, lifting freight rates, and uh spawning a wave of disruption for producers and importers.
So, as inflation expectations have build, we've seen this play out certainly in the Treasury market. We've seen US yields move up. Traders have also paired bets on Fed easing.
Swaps are pricing in less than 40 basis points of cuts in 2026. Tim, that compares with about 60 basis points at the end of last week.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- oil prices
- iran war
- energy shock
- fed rates
- private credit
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Bloomberg
- Trajan Wealth
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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