Episode summary
Trump Questions If Iran Deal Possible as He Amps Pressure | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Michelle Jamrisko, Len Tannenbaum, Amy Rubenstein, Axel Merk
Summary
President Donald Trump’s mixed signals on Iran dominated the opening of the show, as the host and Bloomberg News editor Michelle Jamrisko described a fast-moving mix of diplomacy, military pressure and market anxiety. Jamrisko said Iran had acknowledged receiving a US 15-point proposal, but both sides were still far apart on ceasefire terms, leaving investors focused on whether Trump’s deadline would hold and whether talks with mediators such as Pakistan could produce a breakthrough.
The episode then shifted to private credit, where Len Tannenbaum argued the industry has become far more leveraged, more complacent and more vulnerable after years of rapid growth. He said the sector is now seeing the effects of liquidity drain and redemptions, but also insisted there will still be opportunities for disciplined buyers, especially in the lower middle market and in assets that can be bought at better prices.
Later, Axel Merk linked the war, tariffs, fiscal deficits and higher real yields to a more durable case for gold. He argued that governments are becoming less efficient and more indebted, which supports precious metals over time, even if the market still treats the Iran shock as a temporary event rather than a structural shift.
Key takeaways
- Trump’s Iran policy remains unsettled, and Jamrisko said both diplomacy and escalation are still on the table as the deadline approaches.
- Tannenbaum said private credit is moving through a bust-like phase caused by liquidity drain, redemptions and looser underwriting.
- Tannenbaum argued that distressed lower-middle-market deals can still offer attractive returns because the sector now pays about 400 basis points more than a year ago.
- Merk said gold’s long-term appeal comes from deficits, higher real yields and a world of rising geopolitical and fiscal risk.
- Merk viewed the Iran conflict as a market shock for now, but said a longer conflict would be supportive for gold and broader commodity complexity.
Notable quotes
“I think one thing that was interesting this morning is that Iran through its uh tasnim news agency did acknowledge that they had received the 15-point plan from the US”
“the bubble's bursting, which is kind of normal for the industry”
“we're coming into deals and getting another 400 basis points, which pays for that riskadjusted return, which wasn't there a year ago”
“the market is pricing this in as a shock and not as something structural”
“the interests of government and those of savers are not aligned”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
So, President Donald Trump uh threatening Iran with intensified military action and said he's unsure whether a diplomatic agreement can be reached with the two sides at loggerheads on how to end the near monthlong war.
Yeah, Iran has rejected a US ceasefire proposal. It's waiting for a response to its rejection of a US 15-point plan to end the war with its own conditions for a ceasefire. back with us for more for our daily update on the US war in Iran.
Bloomberg News White House and National Security Editor Michelle Jamusco from the Bloomberg Bureau in Washington DC. 24 hours ago, we were talking to you about what seemed like there could be some sort of offramp for the president here or at least deescalation after that cabinet meeting and the comments that we heard from the president today that looks increasingly unlikely. What do the next 48 hours look like in your perch from Washington?
Yeah, round and round we go, Tim. It seems like we're having the same conversation about the back and forth. I think one thing that was interesting this morning is that Iran through its uh tasnim news agency did acknowledge that they had received the 15-point plan from the US.
So that was a new piece is that they openly uh acknowledge that. Uh Trump later kind of joked that that was obviously a tell that they were lying about the status of negotiations.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- iran deal uncertainty
- u.s. pressure on iran
- oil price volatility
- private credit and real estate credit
- gold market
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Clear Investment Group
- Tannenbaum Capital Group
- Merk Investments
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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