Episode summary
US Adds 130,000 Jobs and Unemployment Falls After Tepid 2025 | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Constance Hunter, Aaron Jagdfeld, Jordan Fabian, Lauren Sanfilippo
Summary
The discussion opened with January’s labor report, which showed U.S. payrolls rose by 130,000 and unemployment fell to 4.3%, even as revisions confirmed 2025 was a far weaker hiring year than first reported. Constance Hunter, chief economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, argued the data fits a broader picture of a labor market that was effectively in recession last year, driven by policy uncertainty, tariffs, and corporate caution. She said many firms “put ourselves on hold” in 2025 and are now ready to move forward again.
Hunter also said the labor market is being distorted by pandemic-era swings in immigration, rehiring, and labor hoarding, so investors should watch corporate profits, productivity, and business-cycle indicators beyond payrolls. She warned that weaker labor-force growth is a structural problem, especially for healthcare, construction, and home health care.
Later, the show turned to Generac, where the CEO said weak fourth-quarter residential sales reflected unusually low outage activity, but the company’s new data-center business is a “generational opportunity.” The final segment focused on Bloomberg’s report that Donald Trump is considering pulling the U.S. out of USMCA, with Jordan Fabian saying that would inject major uncertainty into North American trade and supply chains. The hour also touched on the ongoing “AI scare trade” and a preference for utilities, industrials, and emerging markets over crowded mega-cap exposure.
Key takeaways
- Constance Hunter said 2025 looked like a labor-market recession, but January’s data suggests stabilization rather than renewed weakness.
- Hunter argued that corporate profits and productivity matter more than payrolls right now because labor data is distorted by pandemic and immigration effects.
- Generac said its fourth-quarter miss was weather-driven, while data-center demand could double its CNI sales capacity over 3 to 5 years.
- Jordan Fabian said a U.S. exit from USMCA would be a major shock for North American trade and supply chains.
- A Bank of America private-bank strategist said investors are still leaning on utilities, industrials, and emerging markets as the AI trade broadens out.
Notable quotes
“the the corporate leaders are getting uncomfortable being uncomfortable”
“it looks like we're in I don't know the sixth or seventh inning”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens.
The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio. Yes, we finally got the monthly labor report which was supposed to be out last Friday. We've talked about that.
Today's data showed US payrolls rose in January by the most in more than a year. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell suggesting the labor market continued to stabilize after the start of 2026. And yet, not so fast.
Tim,
The US labor market coming off one of its worst years for hiring in decades. Revisions to employment figures showed the nation added 181,000 jobs last year. That's the lowest annual total outside of recession years going all the way back to 2003.
That averaged out to just 15,000 job gains per month. That's down from an initially reported 49,000 pace. This according to data that we got today from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
All right, with more on where we are exactly in the US labor market because it feels a little confusing. Constance Hunter with us, chief economist at the EIU, the Economist Intelligence Unit. She joins us from Wellington, Florida.
Hey Constance, good to have you back with Tim and me. So January stronger than forecast revision show a little bit of a different picture. What's your read on the US labor market and why?
Yeah. So, I mean, for those of us that had forecast a recession in 2025 because of policy uncertainty, because of tariffs and and other changing policies, um I suppose one could say uh it feels a little vindicating because we did have a bit of a labor market recession, although other aspects of the economy were firing all cylinders.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- unemployment rate
- fed interest rates
- trump economic policies
- usmca trade policy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- BAC
- Navy Federal Credit Union
- Generac
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Merrill
- Bank of America Private Bank
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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