Episode summary
US Stocks Limp Into Year End While Treasury Yields Rise | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · 31 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Mike Green, Laura Champine, Manos Koukoumidis, Ross Gerber
Summary
The conversation centered on what investors should watch heading into 2026, starting with alternatives and income strategies. A guest argued that managed futures and trend following have become important tools for diversification, while derivative income trades and hedged credit funds are drawing demand because the economy’s next move is still uncertain. He also said large-cap momentum and growth have dominated so consistently that, absent a major economic shift, it remains hard to bet against them.
The second segment focused on consumer spending and retail winners. An analyst said apparel and accessories could keep benefiting from GLP-1 use, while off-price and value chains are gaining as consumers trade down or seek convenience. She was constructive on Walmart, Ulta, Five Below, and Victoria’s Secret, and less optimistic on Costco’s mix and Best Buy’s outlook. Her view was that retail margins and brand positioning matter as much as sales growth in 2026.
The episode also touched AI and media. One guest warned that power constraints and a possible shakeout in AI funding could slow the current buildout, while another said open-source models are becoming a key battleground as enterprises mature. Later, a wealth manager said the Warner Bros. Discovery bidding battle is really about control of Hollywood’s last major asset, and that cable TV is headed toward a much smaller future.
Key takeaways
- The guest from Simplify Asset Management said managed futures, trend following, and hedged income strategies could stay in favor in 2026.
- He argued large-cap momentum and growth have dominated for nine of the past 10 years, making it hard to bet on a broad style reversal.
- The consumer analyst said Walmart is gaining higher-income shoppers by using AI and logistics, while Costco has lost ground by cutting back on big-ticket categories.
- She sees 2026 upside in apparel, beauty, Five Below, and Victoria’s Secret, but expects lower footwear profitability and remains cautious on Best Buy.
- A guest on AI said power shortages and a likely shakeout in AI funding could create hiccups, with open-source models becoming the next key battleground.
- Ross Gerber said the Warner Bros. Discovery contest is a fight over Hollywood’s last big asset and that cable TV is a dying business.
Notable quotes
“trend following is one area. I think other areas that we're seeing increased demand for various forms of income”
“we're actually now I believe in nine out of the past 10 years that large cap momentum and and growth orientation has been the place to be”
“I think beauty is going to have a resurgence”
“I foresee looking in 2026 we've been talking to many enterprises from the smallest to the largest ones right”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. the Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenc on Bloomberg Radio.
We also have some questions about things like private credits, private markets, what happens next there. So, with that as our backdrop, let's talk about the alternative uh investing landscape. We've got Mike Green with us, portfolio manager and chief strategist at the alt strategy raia, simplify asset management.
They offer an array of ETFs and funds. Mike, good to have you here with Tim and me as we have just about two hours to go and we wrap up trading here in the United States. Alt investing, some clear winners and losers.
What trends do you think might carry into 2026?
Well, I think one of the trends that's been really critical and it has been introduced with the alternative ETF space, which really didn't emerge until 2020 tied to regulatory changes. things like managed futures and actually trend following are one of the tools that has made its way over into the ETF space that has been a leading area of interest as people look to diversify from the traditional bond equity mix. That's one area where I continually emphasize that you're trying not to actually outsmart the market.
You're trying to recognize that there's information being diffused that you don't necessarily have at that point. So that trend following is one area. I think other areas that we're seeing increased demand for various forms of income.
Those take the form of derivative trading things like call overwriting strategies or put selling strategies that are designed to enhance income or it can take the form of things like a hedged high yield credit fund which is one that I manage at simplify asset management that is designed to reduce the risk associated with the uncertainty of areas like high yield with credit spreads relatively tight.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- treasury yields
- year-end stocks
- ai investing
- market volatility
- fed interest-rate outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MSFT
- META
- MU
- CME
- Microsoft Corp.
- Meta Platforms Inc.
- Micron Technology Inc.
- CME Group
- Simplify Asset Management
- Tabor Asset Management
- Oumi
- Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment Management
- Warner Bros. Discovery
- Bespoke Investment Group
Watch the episode
Watch “US Stocks Limp Into Year End While Treasury Yields Rise | Bloomberg Businessweek” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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