Episode summary

Warsh Faces Intensifying Pressure to Raise Rates After Hot CPI | Bloomberg Businessweek

Bloomberg Businessweek Daily · · 44 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Frank Monkam, Ira Jersey, Veena Ali-Khan, Mike Codella, Joe Daniels

Warsh Faces Intensifying Pressure to Raise Rates After Hot CPI | Bloomberg Businessweek – Bloomberg Businessweek Daily

Summary

Markets were focused on a hotter-than-expected CPI print and the near-certainty of a Fed rate hike next week. The host and two Bloomberg strategists argued that inflation remains sticky enough to keep pressure on Kevin Warsh, with one saying the market is pricing a hike at more than 90% and warning that Treasury yields could make new cycle highs if the Fed stays put. The discussion emphasized that the Fed’s credibility is now part of the decision, even if some participants still see room for political or internal resistance.

Key takeaways

  • The host and Bloomberg strategists said the latest CPI data makes a Fed hike next week look nearly inevitable, with markets pricing it at more than 90%.
  • One strategist warned that if the Fed does not hike, the 10-year, 20-year and 30-year Treasuries could make new cycle highs.
  • The guests said higher gasoline and diesel prices could feed inflation expectations and wage demands, making the energy shock more persistent.
  • A Bloomberg reporter said the Houthis are using the Middle East escalation to consolidate control around key shipping chokepoints and pressure Saudi Arabia.
  • The 9/11 interviews stressed that the memorial and museum are meant to preserve living memory as younger Americans no longer remember the attacks firsthand.

Notable quotes

“the money markets I should say, see a Fed hike next week as an almost done deal amid elevated inflation data”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 0:26

“if the Fed doesn't hike next week, which is now, you know, 90 plus% price the last time that I looked”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 2:59

“the Fed can't bring down gas prices. So, I'm I'm wondering how you view the energy dynamic”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 8:34

“diesel is the ultimate you know uh inflation transmission vector of of energy spikes, right? It's diesel alltime high”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Businessweek Daily at 12:28

How the episode opens

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Masser and Tim Stenbec on Bloomberg Radio.

Well, monetary markets see a Fed hike. Well, the money markets I should say, see a Fed hike next week as an almost done deal amid elevated inflation data. Treasury yields fell from multi-year highs. As for inflation, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset doesn't seem all that worried. He joined Bloomberg this morning.

If you look at the last three months, even with a slightly disappointing number, uh, core CPI is too. And so, uh, in the model that I would be using, I would say that you just about hit the target and inflation is decelerating. Now, what the Fed decides to do, maybe they decide that they're going to do something that put risks on this side or that side.

It's up to them. Uh, but frankly, I think that inflation is clearly decelerating even with this slight uptick uh, this month. If you look at the three-month average, uh, then you're basically hitting the core target.

That, of course, was White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hasset this morning on Bloomberg. Let's get into it. Let's talk uh that CPI print.

Let's talk inflation overall. Let's talk rates. Let's talk the Fed.

With us to do that is Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's out there in our Princeton news bureau. Also with us right here in studio, Bloomberg News macro strategist uh Frank Monra and of course you know he previously worked at uh commodity trading houses uh several of them and so has an unique trading perspective.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • fed rate hike pressure
  • cpi inflation report
  • diesel price surge
  • middle east energy disruption
  • us interest rate strategy

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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.

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