Episode summary
Warsh Vows to Deliver Price Stability, Fed ‘Regime Change’ | Bloomberg Businessweek
Bloomberg Businessweek Daily
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec · Guests: Yelena Shuylatyeva, Geoff Karren, Udesh Jha, Katherine Doherty, Chris Rovzar
Summary
The episode centered on a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation print and how it fits with recent Fed messaging. A guest economist said Chris Waller’s comments point to a central bank that still wants several more soft inflation readings before it can be comfortable staying on hold. She argued the Conference Board still expects inflation to ease in the second half of the year, helped by normalizing housing, consumers resisting higher prices in some goods, and gasoline still running below June’s average despite geopolitical risks.
The second major segment examined Kalshi’s push to build a market around compute power, after Larry Fink’s comment that futures on compute could become a real asset class. Udesh Jha said Kalshi’s new forward curve for GPU compute is meant to create market-driven price discovery that can later support futures, swaps, and other derivatives. He argued the product is attractive because the compute market is fragmented and not standardized, so a prediction-market format can aggregate prices across grades, locations, and uses.
A third discussion looked at oil’s reaction to Middle East tensions and the long-term implication for the Strait of Hormuz. Jeff Curran said China has acted like a swing demander, dampening volatility by buying less when crude is expensive and more when it is cheap. He argued that this crisis will push Gulf states and others to reduce reliance on the strait over the next five years.
Key takeaways
- Yelena Shulyatyeva said the Fed will likely stay on hold unless it gets several more cool inflation readings, even after a softer CPI report.
- Shulyatyeva said housing normalization, tariff effects, and pushback from consumers on other goods could keep inflation easing in the second half of 2026.
- Udesh Jha said Kalshi’s compute forward curve is designed to provide market-driven price discovery for GPU compute and could become the benchmark for derivatives.
- Jha said Kalshi expects demand from hyperscalers, AI users, financial institutions, drug researchers, and retail traders, not just event-contract speculators.
- Jeff Curran said China has helped suppress oil volatility by changing its import behavior, acting like a swing demander rather than a passive buyer.
Notable quotes
“the mission is not accomplished and basically the Fed now needs to see a few more cool readings on inflation to stay on hold”
“we are also starting to see institutions come and join our platform. So, overall, I I think the the the the whole pie is growing quite comfortably”
“the prediction market allows us to to to list several of these contracts, which is what we have done”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios. Podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily, reporting from the magazine that helps global leaders stay ahead with insight on the people, companies, and trends shaping today's complex economy. Plus, global business, finance, and tech news as it happens. The Bloomberg Business Week Daily podcast with Carol Massar and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Radio.
We're going to stay on the economy and the view of the Fed because we are getting a bunch of messaging actually this time from another member of the US Central Bank. — Yeah, on Monday at a New York Association for Business Economics event, the Conference Board's senior US economist, our former Bloomberg colleague Yelena Shulyatyeva, moderated a discussion with Fed Governor Chris Waller. He said he would need to see several months of lower inflation data to feel confident in the trajectory of price pressures. If that pans out, he said, it would make sense for the Fed to continue holding rates steady. And if it doesn't,
If we get another hot reading on core inflation this week, then the FOMC will need to consider tightening monetary policy in the near term. As always, we need to avoid making the mistake of fighting the last war and reacting too soon to tighten inflation.
All right, that of course is Fed Governor Chris Waller with the Conference Board's senior US economist and our former Bloomberg colleague Yelena Shulyatyeva, and she is the New York Association for Business Economics, I believe, new president. So, congratulations.
Listen, it's so good to have you here with Tim and me, Yelena. Um — It's That's Ms. President to you. — Yes, Ms. President. Madam President. — It's such an honor. Thank you. — Well, honor to have you here back with us.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed inflation commitment
- cpi reaction
- ppi outlook
- higher interest rates
- ai computing market
Companies and tickers mentioned
- The Conference Board
- Energy Group Capital
- Kalshi
- Bloomberg News
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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