Episode summary
Daybreak Holiday: Bank Earnings, Taxes and Candy | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 37 min · Hosts: John Tucker · Guests: Herman Chan, Neil Sipes, Erin Slowey, Diana Rosero-Pena
Summary
Big U.S. banks were set up for a strong first quarter, with Bloomberg Intelligence analysts saying JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi and Wells Fargo should benefit from solid commercial lending and fixed-income trading, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley lean more on fee-heavy businesses such as investment banking, M&A and equity capital markets. Neil Cypes said volatility has been good for trading but may temper deal activity, even as he still expects an investment banking rebound over 2026. Herman Chan said JPMorgan had already pointed to mid-teen growth in capital markets and investment banking, and that broad loan growth remained robust.
The program then turned to tax season pressure on the IRS. Bloomberg Law reporter Erin Slowey said about 25% of the IRS took resignation offers tied to Doge cuts, leaving staffing gaps, low morale and a backlog in the millions. She said simple filers should probably be fine, but more complicated returns and refund delays could show up later in the season, especially as seasonal workers are phased out.
Another segment argued that President Trump’s tax changes have sharply reduced corporate cash taxes. Caitlyn Riley said corporate revenues fell by about $65 billion last year, with companies such as Amazon, Meta, Walmart, Home Depot and Eli Lilly benefiting from faster deductions on research and equipment. Diana Rosero-Pena added that Easter candy sales are projected to drop about 5% as shoppers buy less full-price candy and wait for post-holiday discounts.
Key takeaways
- Herman Chan expects JPMorgan Chase to post a strong quarter, with commercial lending and capital markets helping offset a seasonal dip in card activity.
- Neil Cypes said volatility boosts trading revenue but can slow M&A and equity issuance, creating a mixed setup for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.
- Erin Slowey said the IRS is still short-staffed after roughly 25% of employees took resignation offers, leaving a backlog in the millions.
- Caitlyn Riley said corporate tax collections fell by about $65 billion last year after Trump’s tax changes accelerated deductions for R&D and equipment.
- Diana Rosero-Pena said Easter candy sales are projected to fall about 5% as consumers become more price sensitive and shop after the holiday.
Notable quotes
“you make loans, you take in deposits, and you generate fees from areas like uh wealth and capital markets”
“volatility tends to be a positive for the trading businesses. uh you've seen that across equities and fixed income products uh in the first quarter”
“about 25% of the IRS took it. So it was a lot more than people expected”
“we saw corporate revenues drop last year um by about $65 billion following passage of the big beautiful bill over the summer”
“Easter sales, uh, Easter candy sales are set to decline around 5%, people are just not buying them”
How the episode opens
Hi everybody and thanks so much for joining us for the special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm John Tucker. The US stock market closed for the Good Friday Holiday.
Coming up this hour, it's April. Have you done your taxes yet? Well, the deadline less than two weeks away and we're going to explore a few interesting tax related stories.
We'll see how Doge cuts may impact the IRS this tax season. Plus, we're going to tell you why some of the nation's wealthiest corporations owe far less to the government as a result of President Trump's overhaul tax code. And attention chocolate lovers, candy sales.
They're on the decline this Easter holiday. But first, this is right around the corner. The next batch of earnings, big banks will help kick it all off.
And joining us for this preview, Bloomberg Intelligence senior US bank analyst Herman Chan and Bloomberg Intelligence financials analyst Neil Cypes. Hey guys, this should be a pretty simple model. I'm a bank.
Uh, I take in deposits, give the depositors one rate, then I loan their money out at another rate
And I make up the difference and that's how I make money as a bank. — That's right. — Is it that simple? — That's that's right. You're you're talking about that's the net interest margin which is like a big bank metric that everybody focuses on and that is in essence the core of banking. uh you make loans, you take in deposits, and you generate fees from areas like uh wealth and capital markets.
Neil, it's it's not that simple, is it? Because they have all these other different lines of businesses that they've added over the years, investment banking, etc. So forth, consumer and uh all sorts of other business divisions, right?
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- bank earnings
- irs staffing
- tax filing season
- easter candy sales
Watch the episode
Watch “Daybreak Holiday: Bank Earnings, Taxes and Candy | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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