Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: Bank Earnings, UK Property Market, China Trade | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 39 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The program previews three market-moving themes for the coming week: US inflation and bank earnings, UK housing, and China trade. Nathan Hager opens with the December consumer price index, where Bloomberg’s Michael McKe says the shutdown has left distortions in the data, but the consensus still points to a hot 0.3% monthly rise in both headline and core prices. McKe argues that the combination of sticky inflation and a weak jobs report would support the case that the Fed does not need to cut rates again.
Wall Street banks are expected to start fourth-quarter earnings season on a strong note, with JPMorgan Chase first in line. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Herman Chan says trading, investment banking, loan growth, and card lending should all remain supportive, while lower policy rates and a steeper yield curve should lift net interest income. He treats JPMorgan’s “cockroaches” issue in credit as an idiosyncratic problem rather than a broader asset-quality warning.
In the UK, Caroline Heepka’s segment argues that wealth-tax changes and the end of the non-dom regime are weighing on London’s luxury property market, even if many ultra-wealthy residents are not rushing to sell. In Asia, China trade gets framed through geopolitics: Beijing’s tensions with Japan, outreach to South Korea, the implications of Venezuela’s leadership change, and the broader question of whether China’s export growth can keep offsetting weaker US demand.
Key takeaways
- Michael McKe says December CPI will be distorted by missing shutdown-era data, but a 0.3% rise in headline and core would still look too hot for the Fed.
- McKe argues that weak job creation plus sticky inflation would reinforce the view that the Fed does not need to cut rates again.
- Herman Chan expects the big banks to post strong fourth-quarter results, led by trading, investment banking, cards, and loan growth.
- Chan says lower Fed rates should help banks by cutting deposit costs and steepening the yield curve, boosting net interest income in 2026.
- Bloomberg’s UK property coverage says London luxury prices may reprice by up to 5% after the mansion tax and non-dom changes, even as many wealthy residents keep their homes.
- Bloomberg’s China segment says trade flows are being shaped as much by geopolitics and market access as by pure demand growth.
Notable quotes
“Straight ahead on the program, a look ahead to key inflation data in the US and earnings from some of Wall Street's biggest banks”
“we're going to have distortions built into the data going into any month for uh several months”
“people are thinking we're going to see about a 3/10enth increase in both the headline and the core, which is a little hot”
“my expectation this year is that prices across the country won't move dramatically”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, a look ahead to key inflation data in the US and earnings from some of Wall Street's biggest banks.
I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hepka in London where we're asking if the UK's property market can survive an exodus of the country's wealthiest individuals.
I'm Doug Krer looking at the changing trade dynamics for China. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager and we begin today's program with some key economic data in the US. The December consumer price index is due out this Tuesday at 8:30 a.m. Wall Street time.
For more on how the inflation data could impact Fed policy moving forward, we're joined by Michael McKe, Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. Thanks for being here with us, Mike. Uh are we expecting many distortions from this inflation data uh given that we've just come out or recently come out of a government shutdown?
Um let me sound like an economist and say yes and no. — Thank you. — Two two-handed. Uh the problem is we didn't get any October data and the BLS just assumed all the numbers were zero. And then in November we didn't get a month overmonth number because there was no October number. And so basically we're going to have distortions built into the data going into any month for uh several months. So yes, there will be distortions in the December data.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us cpi
- bank earnings
- uk property market
- china trade
- week-ahead markets
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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