Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: Fed Decision, Sweden Election, BOJ Meeting | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 39 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The program previews three major market-moving events for the coming week: a Federal Reserve decision, Sweden’s general election, and a likely Bank of Japan rate hike. On the Fed, the guest said markets had almost fully priced in a 25 basis point increase, even though the policy case is complicated by mixed inflation signals and a debate over whether the recent CPI print was distorted by unusual components. She argued that Chair Kevin Warsh has effectively boxed himself in after a hawkish Jackson Hole speech, making a pause less likely than the market’s already-strong hike expectation.
The episode also looked at a few stocks to watch. LAR faces continued pressure from high rates and weak housing sentiment, with analysts split but generally cautious. Salesforce’s investor meeting is expected to focus on how the company is using recent AI and agent-related acquisitions, and whether those deals are producing measurable returns. Take-Two Interactive’s meeting will center on Grand Theft Auto 6, especially timing for the online launch and whether strong demand can offset recent stock pressure.
In Sweden, the guest said the far right has become a kingmaker even if it is unlikely to take power outright, while the economy has been recovering as inflation falls and real incomes improve. In Japan, the consensus view was that the BOJ will raise rates 25 basis points, with markets already looking ahead to more tightening as the yen strengthens and wage data firm up.
Key takeaways
- Markets have almost fully priced a 25 basis point Fed hike, according to Bloomberg Economics, even though the latest inflation data may overstate underlying pressure.
- The guest said Kevin Warsh’s hawkish messaging makes a pause difficult because the Fed has tied itself to the market’s pricing.
- LAR still faces a weak housing backdrop, with analysts split but generally cautious and RBC expecting another gross margin miss.
- Salesforce investors will look for evidence that recent AI deals are translating into returns, not just headline growth in acquisitions.
- The Sweden Democrats have reshaped Swedish politics without winning power, while Sweden’s economy is recovering as inflation falls and real incomes rise.
- The BOJ is expected to hike 25 basis points, and markets are already pricing a meaningful chance of another move later in the year.
Notable quotes
“markets have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point hike already”
“there's just no room for nuances or maneuverability around these details. It is the top line”
“The Sweden Democrats really emerged on the scene in in 2010 when they entered parliament for the first time”
“it does look like Japan sold off a portion of the Treasury's holdings to fund the latest intervention”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look ahead to the next monetary policy decision from the Fed. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hipka here in London where we're asking if Sweden will become the latest example of Europe's right-wing rise.
I'm Doug Krer looking at the reasons why the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate in the coming week. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121 and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business app.
Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager and we begin today's program with a highly anticipated decision from the Federal Reserve. Kevin Warsh and company are set to begin their two-day meeting on Tuesday ahead of a September monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
Ahead of it, we are joined by Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics. Anna, there has been so much anticipation heading into this decision. bets in the rates market are steadily building that we will see an interest rate hike coming up this week.
What's your expectation over at Bloomberg Economics?
Right now the markets have almost fully priced in a 25 basis point hike already. So regardless of what anyone think or what uh the uh any doves on the FOMC which are uh on the fence there's nobody could be on the fence just because you know markets have spoken. They want and they expect a hike.
Kevin Worsh himself would be in a difficult position because he faces a boss, a president who has explicitly called for him to cut um and instead he is delivering a hike two months before the midterm election.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed decision
- sweden election
- boj meeting
- stock picks
- monetary policy
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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