Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: Homebuilders Preview, UK Jobs, Lunar New Year | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The program previewed several market-moving themes for the coming week, starting with homebuilders. A Bloomberg Intelligence analyst said the new-home market still faces weak sentiment even as affordability has improved and mortgage rates are down about 100 basis points from last year. He expects new-home sales to rise in the mid-single-digit range on community-count growth, while housing starts stay flat as builders work through inventory and keep incentives elevated through the spring selling season.
The episode also flagged key earnings from Walmart, DoorDash and Deere. A Bloomberg News equities reporter said Walmart’s $1 trillion valuation and 19% year-to-date gain make its report a high bar event, with investors watching same-store sales, higher-margin businesses and inventory. For DoorDash, she highlighted spending on new products, a muted adjusted EBITDA outlook of $710 million to $810 million, and pressure from a New York City tipping rule. Deere was presented as a test of whether strong shares can keep rising if the farm economy keeps weakening through 2026.
In the UK, Bloomberg reporters discussed jobs data expected to show unemployment rising to 5.2% from 5.1%, with payroll tax increases and minimum-wage hikes blamed for weaker hiring. The discussion also focused on whether AI is lifting productivity while reducing hiring, especially for entry-level roles. In China, Lunar New Year spending was framed as cautious but still important, with gold, travel to Korea and Southeast Asia, and online red-envelope gifting all in focus.
Key takeaways
- The homebuilders analyst expects new-home sales to rise in the mid-single-digit range, but says housing starts will likely stay flat because builders are clearing standing inventory.
- He says builders are keeping incentives elevated through the spring selling season, which should pressure margins even if sales hold up.
- The Bloomberg News equities reporter says Walmart’s $1 trillion market cap and 19% year-to-date gain leave little room for disappointment on Thursday.
- DoorDash investors will be watching whether heavier capex and a $710 million to $810 million adjusted EBITDA outlook still allow order growth to hold up.
- UK economists expect unemployment to edge up to 5.2%, and the guests said payroll tax rises have been a major drag on hiring.
- The China segment said Lunar New Year spending is still fragile, but gold gifting, Korea travel and online red envelopes remain bright spots.
Notable quotes
“we think that the market can grow this year from a sales perspective. A lot of that's going to be driven by community count growth”
“we do think that housing starts which is probably the most widely followed measure in the new home market will be flattish”
“We have made some progress on affordability, which as we all know has been the primary constraint for buyers out there in the market”
“Walmart is such a bellweather of low and mid-inccome consumers”
“The UK's unemployment rate has climbed to near COVID levels since Labor took power in 2024”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, a look at what we can expect from homebuilders in the months ahead. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hetka in London where we're looking ahead to the UK jobs numbers and asking whether AI is starting to affect productivity.
I'm Doug Krishnner looking at the outlook for Chinese consumer spending during the Lunar New Year holiday. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with homebuilders. Recently, we heard the Trump administration is exploring an antirust investigation into the industry as the White House sharpens its focus on tackling the housing affordability crisis.
For more on what we can expect from home builders in the months ahead, we're joined by Drew Reading, US home building analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Drew, how do you see the backdrop now in the new home market?
So, in the new home market, the backdrop is still a little bit challenged. We have made some progress on affordability, which as we all know has been the primary constraint for buyers out there in the market. Mortgage rates are down about 100 basis points from where we were last year.
Um, but what we've heard pretty consistently from the builders that we talked to is that it's not just about affordability. Um, it's also about sentiment. You have more consumers out there in the market who may be concerned about the direction of the economy, the outlook for employment.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- homebuilders outlook
- uk jobs data
- lunar new year china holiday
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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