Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: Housing Outlook, Europe Culinary Trends, Australian Eco | Bloomberg Daybreak:...
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 40 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
Commodities strategist Mike McLo argued that 2026 could look more deflationary than inflationary, with gold’s extraordinary run and crude oil’s weakness signaling a global recessionary trajectory. He said gold may still have momentum, but historically this is the kind of stretch that tends to underperform over time, while oil could drift toward $40 a barrel even if it briefly rebounds.
On housing, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Drew Reading said lower mortgage rates alone have not revived demand in a meaningful way because buyers remain cautious about the economy and labor market. He expects existing-home prices to moderate, new-home prices to keep easing, and single-family housing starts to remain muted as builders work through elevated inventory and lean heavily on incentives that continue to squeeze margins.
The Europe segment focused on food, travel, and culture trends rather than macro policy. Bloomberg Pursuits editor Kate Crater highlighted resilient dining demand at some London restaurants, the rise of martini menus, and a wave of smart pub and restaurant reopenings. UK correspondent Sarah Rapaport pointed to luxury trains, the pressure on the middle of the travel market, and destinations like Sardinia and Taipei as places where travelers are still willing to spend for standout experiences.
Key takeaways
- Mike McLo said gold’s 2025 surge and crude oil’s decline point to a global deflationary and recessionary backdrop in 2026.
- McLo expects WTI could move toward $40 a barrel, though he warned oil could still spike back toward $70.
- Drew Reading said lower mortgage rates have not produced a material demand pickup, so housing growth may remain slow and uneven.
- Reading expects new-home builders to keep using incentives and to face further margin pressure as backlogs run 10% to 40% below prior levels.
- Kate Crater said London restaurant demand is mixed, with big-name operators faring better than smaller independents.
- Sarah Rapaport said the travel market is still strong at the ultra-luxury end, while the middle remains squeezed by tighter budgets.
Notable quotes
“I think momentum probably gets it towards 5,000, but a normal back and fill of a high velocity where I like this can actually get it to 3500”
“I think crude oil is going to continue um heading lower, but it's not alone, Nathan. It has it's in the same camp as corn, soybeans, and wheat and the grains”
“What's interesting and what we've heard from some of the builders is that there hasn't been a material increase in demand since rates pulled back”
“we think that the single family market is going to remain muted. We're I mean, we're expecting housing starts to be lower in 2026”
“things are changing now. Situation is getting a little bit harder. And at the top end, at the ultra luxury end, things are doing all right, but the middle is a little bit more squeezed”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look ahead to how commodities may fare in 2026 along with an outlook for the housing sector.
I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Steven Carol in Brussels and we're thinking about the culinary and cultural trends in Europe to watch in the year ahead. I'm Doug Krer looking at the possible timeline of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager and we begin today's program with commodities, a sector that presented a mixed but for the most part strong performance in 2025.
So for more on what to expect in 2026, who better to be joined by than Mike Mclo, senior commodity strategist for Bloomberg Intelligence. Happy New Year, Mike. And um what a year it was for gold trading at records.
Is 2026 going to be another year to be a gold bug? Unfortunately, the lessons of history, Nathan, say the momentum's upward, but history suggests this is where overweight long new positions typically underperform, particularly for enduring periods. To give you one example, gold's cousin, uh, silver, it's gone, you know, they both had the best year since 1979.
In 1979, silver's high was 32. This year's low was 28. That's almost 50 years, though.
That's the kind of risk you have with gold getting to silver. So, I think momentum probably gets it towards 5,000, but a normal back and fill of a high velocity where I like this can actually get it to 3500.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- housing outlook 2026
- commodities outlook
- europe culinary trends
- europe cultural trends
- reserve bank of australia rate pivot
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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