Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US CPI, ECB Outlook, South Korea Constitution Day | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · Hosts: John Tucker
Summary
US inflation is the main near-term focus, with June CPI due Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday. John Tucker and Bloomberg Economics’ Stuart Paul argued that the Fed is likely to stay cautious because headline CPI should tick down, while core inflation should ease only gradually. Paul said markets may be too aggressive in pricing a year-end hike, and he expects the Fed to remain on hold through year end, especially if shelter disinflation continues to lag in the official data.
The episode also previewed several large-cap earnings reports. Matthew Griffin said JPMorgan’s trading and investment banking should remain strong, but investors may already have the stock priced for good results. United Airlines’ guidance is a key watchpoint as higher fares compete with lower fuel costs, while Netflix faces questions about slowing momentum, pricing power, and whether AI and major sports events could weigh on viewing trends.
In Europe, Caroline Hepker and Bloomberg reporters said the ECB has become more worried again as renewed Middle East conflict threatens oil prices and inflation expectations. For South Korea, Doug Krer and Cat Barton highlighted Constitution Day as a backdrop for the country’s expanding defense industry, driven by exports, North Korea risk, and growing demand for drones, submarines, and missile systems.
Key takeaways
- Stuart Paul expects June headline CPI to soften and says the Fed is more likely to stay on hold through year end than deliver a late-year hike.
- Matthew Griffin said JPMorgan’s trading revenue could stay above $10 billion, but the stock may already be priced for strong results.
- Matthew Griffin said United Airlines investors will focus on third-quarter guidance to see whether higher ticket prices can offset fuel costs.
- Bloomberg reporters said the ECB is increasingly worried that renewed conflict and higher oil prices could keep inflation above 2% longer.
- Cat Barton said South Korea’s defense industry is benefiting from global demand and government support, especially in drones, missiles, howitzers and submarines.
Notable quotes
“the Fed is going to be more concerned about inflation, but fortunately for the Fed, we're going to have a decline in the monthly headline CPI reading”
“I expect the Fed to remain on hold through the end of the year”
“Analysts expect strong earnings for the bank, but will that be enough for investors”
“The question now that Wall Street is asking is okay crude prices have come down. What's going to happen to ticket prices for these airlines”
“It looks very likely that the ECB will raise rates again after the summer in September”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, a look ahead to some key inflation data in the US. I'm John Tucker in New York. I'm Caroline Hepker in London where we're discussing the European Central Bank as it grapples with an uncertain inflation landscape.
I'm Doug Krishnner looking ahead to Constitution Day in South Korea and what it means for military hardware makers. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Hi everybody, I'm John Tucker and let's start today's program with some key inflation data in the US.
We're going to get uh consumer price index information for the month of June on Tuesday and also producer prices that comes on Wednesday. And for more how this data may impact Fed policy, we're joined by Stuart Paul, the US economist with Bloomberg Economics. Thanks for stopping by today.
Appreciate it. Uh, should I be more concerned about inflation or the job markets, the two uh uh mandates for the Federal Reserve?
Well, the Fed is going to be more concerned about inflation, but fortunately for the Fed, we're going to have a decline in the monthly headline CPI reading when we get the June CPI report. — Well, gasoline prices fell about 9% during the month of June as we had
You haven't been to my gas station. Well, already now that we're moving through the month of July, now that we're seeing uh the end of the ceasefire and some reescalation in the Middle East, yes, as we go forward, we will see a little bit of additional headline inflation pressures, but for this June CPI report, the headline's going to tick down just a little bit.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us cpi
- us ppi
- ecb outlook
- south korea constitution day
- stock picks
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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