Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US CPI, Paris Nuclear Talks, Vietnam Elections | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The weekend Daybreak roundup focused first on the U.S. inflation setup, with Edward Harrison saying Wednesday’s February CPI report could matter less than the Fed’s preferred PCE measure. He argued the hotter risk is in core PCE, which he pegged at 3.1%, and said the combination of sticky inflation and slowing growth looks like “stagflation light.” He also warned that a prolonged Middle East conflict could lift energy prices and inflation expectations, though longer-run market measures have so far stayed anchored.
The program then turned to earnings catalysts, with Matthew Griffin flagging Oracle, Adobe and Kohl’s as key readouts for investors. He said Oracle’s AI spending spree has boosted the stock in the past but now raises hard questions about returns, while Adobe is caught in the “SAS apocalypse” selloff as investors question whether software can be displaced by cheap AI tools. Kohl’s, by contrast, is a check on the U.S. consumer, after the retailer raised its full-year outlook in November.
Later segments looked at Europe’s nuclear debate and Vietnam’s political and economic outlook. In Europe, Poland signaled interest in deeper nuclear-sharing cooperation with France, while Spain rejected higher NATO spending and insisted on a 2.1% defense budget. In Vietnam, the coming National Assembly vote is expected to confirm leadership changes after the Communist Party Congress and comes amid continued export growth and a market upgrade process.
Key takeaways
- Edward Harrison said the market risk is less about headline CPI than core PCE, which Bloomberg economists expect at 3.1%.
- Harrison argued the Fed is facing “stagflation light” as inflation stays elevated while growth slows.
- Matthew Griffin said Oracle investors will focus on whether AI spending produces revenue growth, with analysts looking for just under $16 billion of quarterly revenue.
- Griffin said Adobe is under pressure because investors are questioning whether software can be replicated by cheap AI tools.
- In Europe, Poland is open to France-led nuclear sharing, while Spain is sticking to 2.1% defense spending and rejecting the 5% NATO target.
- Franchesca Stevens said Vietnam’s National Assembly vote will likely confirm To Lam’s dual role and set up further policy steps after the January party congress.
Notable quotes
“we're starting to think about, you know, an extended hold and potentially the next move being a rate hike, not a cut”
“That means that not only do we have inflation, but we also have slowing growth”
“the huge outlays on AI from Oracle have been greeted enthusiastically on Wall Street in the past and have been punished on Wall Street”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look to some key inflation data in the US. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hepkit in London where we're looking ahead to talks in Paris about sharing France's nuclear capabilities with other European countries.
I'm Doug Krer looking ahead to legislative elections in Vietnam. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App.
Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key inflation data in the US.
The consumer price index for the month of February comes out on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. Wall Street time. For a look ahead to the numbers and what they could mean for Fed policy, we're joined by Bloomberg News senior strategist Edward Harrison, the author of Bloomberg's The Everything Risk Newsletter.
Ed, it's great to speak with you and of course after we just got that big surprise on February jobs. What's the risk of a market surprise on the inflation front?
Hey Nathan, I think uh the risk is there certainly uh the risk is probably less there for CPI uh than it is for uh the PCE index which is the one that the Fed really tracks uh more closely. given the fact that we have this war in Iran, I think they might look through some of the gasoline prices and look towards the core, you know, not including uh food, not including energy. And so the numbers to look for are the core for uh CPI, which is um the Bloomberg economist uh estimate is at 2.4% on average.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us cpi
- paris nuclear talks
- vietnam elections
- weekly stock watch
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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