Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US Eco, International Energy Week, Softbank Earnings | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 39 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
Delayed US labor and inflation data are the main macro focus, with Bloomberg Economics expecting a very weak January payrolls print of about 15,000 jobs added and a hot CPI reading of roughly 0.3% month on month for both headline and core. Stuart Paul argues the labor market is cooling and is not a material source of inflation pressure right now, while the Federal Reserve remains more worried about goods-price inflation and tariff pass-through than about labor-market weakness.
The week ahead also brings a busy earnings slate in the US, where Cisco, McDonald’s and T-Mobile are all being watched for signs of how AI spending, consumer trading-down and wireless competition are changing corporate outlooks. Bailey Lipshultz says Cisco’s results will be judged on whether management can sustain momentum amid a broader software selloff, while McDonald’s is positioned to benefit from value-seeking consumers even if narrower margins follow.
In London, International Energy Week will center on geopolitics, energy security and the power needs of AI and data centers. Caroline Heepker’s guests say the transition is increasingly about execution: building grids, securing generation and getting power to customers fast enough. In Asia, SoftBank’s earnings will be read less for the numbers than for Masayoshi Son’s next AI bets, with investors split between excitement over OpenAI exposure and caution about concentration risk. The program also flagged India’s improving market sentiment after tariff relief from the Trump administration.
Key takeaways
- Stuart Paul expects January payrolls to rise only about 15,000, with the labor market cooling and not driving inflation.
- The CPI print is expected to be hot at about 0.3% month on month for both headline and core inflation, according to Bloomberg Economics.
- Bailey Lipshultz says Cisco investors will focus on whether AI-related hardware demand can offset a broader selloff in software names.
- McDonald’s is seen as a beneficiary of value-conscious consumers, even if the company has to accept narrower margins to drive traffic.
- SoftBank is increasingly treated as a proxy for OpenAI and AI sentiment in Japan, but investors are getting more cautious about Son’s heavy concentration risk.
- Energy Week speakers argue the transition is now about delivery—more generation, better grids and faster access to power for AI and data centers.
Notable quotes
“the distortions will probably be pretty limited. Data collection continued pretty much uninterrupted. So, I think that the quality of the data should be about fine”
“We're expecting the January report to show just about 15,000 jobs added during the month of January”
“I think that the monthly print is going to be hot. I think that we're going to see about a 0.3% month-on-month pace of both headline and core inflation”
“The question will be is there actually capacity uh is there a capacity constraint and are we going to hit a point where maybe some of these companies”
“the conversation around global energy has been focused on the Middle East”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we'll look at some delayed economic data in the US and how they may impact Fed policy. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hka in London where we're looking at the global energy sector.
I'm Doug Krer looking at Soft Bank's approaching earnings as well as the company's bets on artificial intelligence. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the US. It's coming a little late thanks to the recent government shutdown, but we do expect to get the January employment report this Wednesday.
So, uh, no jobs Friday this month. The consumer price index that had been scheduled for this Wednesday is coming out this Friday. So, we get a a CPI Friday instead.
Here to get us ready for the figures and how they may affect Fed policy is Stuart Paul, US economist with Bloomberg Economics. starting to get a little used to this data coming a touch late with these recent government shutdowns. Are we expecting um any distortions in the data due to the uh the slight lapse in timing on these numbers?
Stuart,
The distortions will probably be pretty limited. Data collection continued pretty much uninterrupted. So, I think that the quality of the data should be about fine. What we're expecting though is uh a pretty poor reading for headline job gains.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs data
- cpi inflation
- stock picks
- international energy week
- softbank earnings
Companies and tickers mentioned
- SFTBY
- SoftBank
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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