Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US Housing, Europe Data, Yen Intervention | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 39 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The episode previewed a week of market-moving data and earnings across the US, Europe, Japan and Hong Kong. In the US, the focus was on July housing starts and pending home sales, with Bloomberg Intelligence’s Drew Reading saying single-family starts are still under pressure, builders are trimming spec production, and affordability continues to favor renting over owning. He also said Toll Brothers looks relatively insulated because its buyers are wealthier and less rate-sensitive.
The program then turned to US retail and industrial earnings, where Target, Walmart, Deere and Estee Lauder were framed as readouts on consumer health, pricing power and recovery trends. Avalon Pernell said investors are looking for signs that Target’s turnaround is sticking, Walmart may keep using lower prices to drive traffic, Deere could reinforce that 2026 is the trough, and Estee Lauder is still navigating a broader beauty-sector recovery.
In Europe, Steven Carroll and guests argued that the region has so far defied stagflation fears: GDP, PMIs and earnings have been stronger than expected, inflation has risen to 2.9%, and the ECB is widely expected to hike in September. In Asia, Doug Krishner highlighted that the yen’s weakness remains a policy problem even after intervention, while Hong Kong faces a split outlook between strong asset-management inflows and Beijing’s tax and capital controls.
Key takeaways
- Drew Reading said US single-family housing starts are down about 5% year to date and builders are still working through elevated spec-home inventory.
- Reading said affordability and mortgage rates back toward 7% make renting economically more attractive than owning for many households.
- Avalon Pernell said Target investors will watch whether the company’s recovery is durable, while options imply about a 6.2% post-earnings move.
- Europe’s economy has outperformed gloomy forecasts, with euro area GDP up 0.4% in the second quarter and MSCI Europe profits up 17% year over year.
- The yen’s weakness remains a live issue because intervention alone has not fixed the gap between Japan’s rates and those in the US.
- Julie Ren said Hong Kong’s wealth-management boom is being challenged by Beijing’s tax hunt and tighter scrutiny of mainland Chinese capital abroad.
Notable quotes
“we're down about 5% year to date on the single family side and we expect to see further pressure”
“the math certainly does favor renting over over owning”
“we still expect Toll to report high singledigit growth in orders”
“the options data that we're currently seeing at the moment is implying about a 6.2% move after those results”
“they've posted 17% increase in profits, and that's the best since late 2022”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look to some key housing data in the US. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington.
I'm Steven Carroll in London. We're looking ahead to the next economic indicators for Europe and what it signals about the trajectory for stocks and the economy for the rest of the year.
I'm Doug Krer looking at the fate of the Japanese yen and a reality check for Hong Kong. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121 and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business app. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with a look at the US housing market. This week, we get figures on housing starts and pending home sales for the month of July.
For more on this and the latest in the home building sector, we are joined by Drew Reading, US home building analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Uh, great as always to speak with you, Drew. Of course, it's been a pretty hot summer.
So, are we expecting many projects to have gotten off the ground in the last month? So when we think about housing starts um you know we're down about 5% year to date on the single family side and we expect to see further pressure um from that side of the market. You know we see builders that are continuing to scale back production giving in an already elevated supply of speck home inventory that they still need to work through.
And you know we've got sales in the new home market that are up just about 2% year to date.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us housing data
- europe inflation
- pmi data
- yen intervention
- japan policy outlook
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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