Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, BOE Meeting, RBA Decision | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 39 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The episode looks ahead to three central-bank decisions and a busy week of market catalysts. In the US, a guest says the October non-farm payrolls report is likely to show only modest job growth, with Bloomberg Economics forecasting 26,000 added payrolls, below the roughly 50,000 needed to match population growth and keep unemployment steady. The guest argues that if unemployment rises to 4.3% or 4.4%, markets may be too confident about a December Fed hike.
The program also previews earnings from Apple, Palantir and Airbnb. A guest says Apple faces pressure from rising memory-chip costs and questions around the iPhone Duo, while Palantir is expected to post record revenue supported by US government and commercial demand. Airbnb is expected to report its highest earnings in three years, with travel demand holding up despite higher fuel prices and weak consumer confidence.
In the UK, the discussion centers on whether the Bank of England will hike on November 5 after a budget that barely changes the inflation outlook. In Australia, the guest says the Reserve Bank of Australia is under clear pressure to raise rates again as inflation sits at 4.3%, housing weakens, and services prices broaden out.
Key takeaways
- A guest expects US October payrolls to rise by 26,000, which would be below the level needed to keep the unemployment rate steady.
- The guest says a move in unemployment to 4.3% or 4.4% would make a December Fed hike look less certain than markets currently imply.
- A guest says Apple’s results will be judged on memory-chip costs, iPhone Duo issues, and demand into the holiday season.
- A guest says Palantir revenue should hit a new high, driven by US government demand and expanding commercial partnerships.
- A guest says Airbnb earnings are expected to reach a three-year high because travel demand remains resilient despite higher fuel prices.
- A guest says the RBA has already signaled another hike this week, with inflation at 4.3% and broader services-price pressure building.
Notable quotes
“Our team is forecasting a 26,000 uh increase in payrolls and you know compared to two years ago that sounds like a low number”
“the cost that they're dealing with. So one way that firms have been handling these higher raw material costs and input costs, higher health care premium costs is by not hiring as much as they would”
“Apple is going to be the really big one next week, really starting off the week”
“it could be actually quite a good quarter for Palanteer. So revenue is expected uh to hit a new high”
“Airbnb earnings are actually expected to hit the highest level in 3 years”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look to the October jobs report in the US. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm T Adabio in London where we're looking ahead to the Bank of England's next interest rate decision in the wake of the Chancellor's budget announcement.
I'm Doug Krishnner looking at the pressures facing the Reserve Bank of Australia ahead of its next policy decision. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121 and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hagar. We begin today's program with a look at the labor market. The non-farm payrolls report for the month of October is due out this Friday at 8:30 a.m.
Wall Street time. It is a number investors and economists will be watching. So, let's speak to one of them.
Anna Wong, chief US economist for Bloomberg Economics is with us. Thanks for being here, Anna. We know it's been a low higher low fire environment for so long in this country.
So uh should we have low expectations for this Friday?
Yeah be and that's because um in recent months the job prints has been fluctuating between negative to hundreds of thousands. So I think uh what people are accustomed to now is just a big positive surprise or negative surprise. Our team is forecasting a 26,000 uh increase in payrolls and you know compared to two years ago that sounds like a low number but um now given that this year population growth has slowed uh we are estimating that the jobs increase that's consistent with population growth is roughly at 50,000.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- boe meeting
- rba decision
- stock picks
- labor market outlook
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AAPL
- PLTR
- ABNB
- Apple
- Palantir
- Airbnb
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition, this episode and its artwork belong to Bloomberg. Octagon is not affiliated with the show; this page is an independent summary.
