Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Burnham Conference, RBA Decision | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 40 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The week ahead centers on three pressure points for investors: a potentially hot U.S. inflation-and-jobs backdrop, a politically delicate Labour Party conference in Liverpool, and an expected Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike. In the U.S., Edward Harrison argues that recent economic data have been stronger than expected, with the August PCE index still likely to leave inflation above 3% and the September payrolls report potentially pushing yields higher. He says the market could move toward pricing in an October rate hike, especially if growth and labor data stay firm.
The U.K. segment focuses on Andy Burnham’s first Labour Party conference as leader, where he faces the challenge of balancing optimism with fiscal restraint. Caroline Hepker and James Wilcox say the government may try to avoid major fiscal-rule changes and instead use a smaller, contained budget, even as borrowing constraints, higher taxes and investor scrutiny limit room to maneuver.
In Australia, James McIntyre says the RBA is now likely to raise rates again because higher diesel prices, firm inflation expectations and a persistent AI investment boom are keeping inflation risks elevated. The segment also highlights stock-specific catalysts: Carnival’s record revenue but weak growth, Micron’s AI-driven memory boom, and Nike’s turnaround test amid international weakness.
Key takeaways
- Edward Harrison says the U.S. economy looks strong enough to keep bond yields under pressure and could increase the odds of an October Fed hike.
- Harrison says the August PCE data should stay above 3% on both headline and core measures, even if a calculation change trims the consensus estimate.
- James Wilcox says Andy Burnham enters Labour’s conference with upbeat polling but limited fiscal room, making the October budget the key test.
- James McIntyre says the RBA is likely to hike again because diesel-driven inflation pressures are now outweighing concern about the labor market.
- Judy Lru says Carnival’s revenue could hit a record $8.4 billion, but growth would still be its weakest in over five years.
- Lru says Micron’s next-quarter outlook matters most because investors want proof that AI-driven memory demand can stay strong.
Notable quotes
“I think that in the interim we've seen the data come in very strong. So this week we should be looking for strength”
“the consensus is for uh is it for it to stay put at 3.7% in terms of the headline number, but the core is actually supposed to go up”
“the watch word uh is overheating. that is is the potential is is is that the economy is so strong that inflation has become”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look to a busy week of economic data. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hepker in London where we're looking at Prime Minister Andy Bernham's plans ahead of his first Labour Party conference as leader.
I'm Doug Krishnner looking at whether higher inflation in Australia will push the central bank to raise its policy rate. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with a busy week of economic data to look forward to. In the US, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation.
The personal consumption expenditures index for August comes out Wednesday. Then we get a broad read of the labor market in the September non-farm payrolls report due out Friday. Plenty of risks to consider.
So, let's bring in Edward Harrison for more on this. Ed's a senior strategist for Bloomberg News and author of the Everything Risk Newsletter. Great to speak with you as always, Ed.
And dare I ask what the bigger risk is this week? I mean, the Fed's been laser focused on the inflation side of the mandate. Does that change after this week?
No, Nathan, I think it doesn't change. You know, the last time you and I spoke, we spoke about the jobs number. Uh we talked about the potential for that number to undersshoot as a result of temporary uh people who have temporary protected status leaving temporary protected status.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- uk labor party conference
- rba decision
- stock focus
- labor leader agenda
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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