Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, Germany Elections, South Korea Inflation | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 38 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The episode previews three market-moving storylines for the coming week: August U.S. payrolls, state elections in eastern Germany, and South Korean inflation. Nathan Hager frames the U.S. jobs report as the key near-term test for Federal Reserve policy, while Edward Harrison says the risk of a downside surprise is relatively high because immigration changes and benchmark revisions may be distorting payrolls. Harrison’s base case is a result close to zero, with a meaningful chance of another negative print.
The program also looks at a crowded earnings week for stocks tied to AI, cyber security, and consumer spending. Matthew Griffin says Palo Alto Networks faces a very high bar after a strong CrowdStrike report, Broadcom will be judged on whether it can justify lofty expectations for AI-chip revenue growth, and Lululemon is under pressure to show even modest sales growth while investors wait for a turnaround under a new CEO.
In Europe, Caroline Heb says a strong AFD result in Saxony-Anhalt could send a political shock through Berlin and increase pressure on Friedrich Merz’s fragile coalition. In Asia, the discussion turns to South Korea, where Bloomberg’s Cat Barton says inflation remains stubbornly above target and the Bank of Korea is worried about semiconductor-driven demand, rising wages, and the risk that price pressure becomes entrenched.
Key takeaways
- Edward Harrison says the risk of a weak August U.S. payrolls print is high because immigration changes may leave non-farm payrolls closer to zero, or even negative.
- Matthew Griffin says Palo Alto Networks faces a high bar with analysts expecting about 30% year-over-year revenue growth and a valuation above 90 times forward earnings.
- Griffin says Broadcom investors will focus less on the quarter and more on 2027 AI-chip commentary after June guidance disappointed the market and shares fell 13% in a day.
- Caroline Heb says an AFD win in Saxony-Anhalt would be the party’s first control of a German state government since the Second World War and could intensify pressure on Friedrich Merz.
- Cat Barton says South Korea’s inflation risk is being reinforced by booming semiconductor exports, bigger worker bonuses, and a Bank of Korea that has already hiked rates twice in a row.
Notable quotes
“I think the risk is relatively high, Nathan, because of the temporary um protected status workers who have now left the payrolls”
“for next year analysts are expecting revenue from AI chips of about $120 billion. that would imply six-fold growth over 2 years”
“if the far right really wins, that means getting an absolute majority and actually being in executive power, then this would be a historical for Germany”
“The projection is obviously 2.5% both for 2025 and for 2026 for core and it's a lot as you say due to these absolutely roaring um exports of semiconductors”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look ahead to August jobs numbers in the US. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Heper in London where we're looking ahead to the state elections in Eastern Germany. What it could mean for the rest of Europe.
I'm Doug Krnner looking at whether the reading on South Korean inflation will point to another rate hike from the BOK. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121 and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business app.
Good day to you. I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the US.
Non-farm payrolls for the month of August are due out this Friday, 8:30 a.m. Wall Street time as it is the first Friday of every month. And for more on how this month's numbers could affect Fed policy, we are very pleased to be joined by Edward Harrison, senior strategist for Bloomberg News and author of the Everything Risk Newsletter.
Ed, what's the risk of the kind of negative surprise that we saw from the July non-farm payrolls print?
I think the risk is relatively high, Nathan, because of the temporary um protected status workers who have now left the payrolls. I think that that's the big question. How many of those workers uh were working under temporary protected status?
And uh what does that mean for non-form payrolls? It could actually be such a large number in the hundreds of thousands that you see a negative number for uh for the next month as as well as last month.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- germany elections
- south korea inflation
- stock picks
- week ahead markets
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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