Episode summary
Daybreak Weekend: US Jobs, UK Elections, RBA Decision | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 38 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager
Summary
The episode previewed three big week-ahead themes for investors: the April U.S. jobs report, the UK’s local elections, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next decision. In the U.S., Stuart Paul of Bloomberg Economics said the consensus expects about 60,000 payroll gains, enough to keep the labor market resilient and possibly nudge unemployment down to 4.2% from 4.3%, even if private indicators look a bit softer. He argued the data should reinforce a neutral Fed stance rather than revive a clear case for cuts.
The show also highlighted earnings from Disney, AMD, and Marriott. Matthew Griffin said Disney’s new CEO will face intense scrutiny over growth, cost cuts, and political controversy, while AMD and Marriott both look priced for perfection after strong rallies.
In the UK, Caroline Hepker and Bloomberg reporters said the May 7 elections could be a referendum on Keir Starmer and a sign of a more fragmented, multi-party system. In Australia, James McIntyre said higher oil prices have created a dilemma for the RBA: inflation pressure is rising, but consumer confidence and growth are also under strain.
Key takeaways
- Stuart Paul said April U.S. payrolls are expected at about 60,000, a pace he views as still healthy enough to lower unemployment.
- Stuart Paul argued the jobs report should support a more neutral Fed tone rather than strengthen the case for imminent rate cuts.
- Matthew Griffin said Disney investors will focus on what Josh D’Amaro says about growth, cost cuts, and controversy, not just the numbers.
- Matthew Griffin said AMD is up 62% year to date, leaving the chip sector looking priced to perfection.
- Caroline Hepker and Bloomberg reporters said the UK local elections could deepen the breakup of the two-party system and test Starmer’s leadership.
- James McIntyre said the RBA is weighing an inflation shock from oil against weaker consumer confidence and growth risk.
Notable quotes
“I don't think that the April numbers are going to change the thematic view that this is a low higher lowf fire situation, a low higher low fire environment”
“the consensus expects about 60,000 jobs were added during the month of April”
“I think investors are going to be expecting a lot from the chip maker”
“this round of elections is big in scope”
“I think that is the concern”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. This is Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend, our global look at the top stories in the coming week from our Daybreak anchors all around the world. Straight ahead on the program, we look ahead to April jobs numbers in the US. I'm Nathan Hager in Washington. I'm Caroline Hepka in London where we're looking ahead to an unusually important set of UK local elections.
I'm Doug Krner looking at how higher oil prices will affect the thinking at the Reserve Bank of Australia. That's all straight ahead on Bloomberg Daybreak Weekend on Bloomberg 1130 New York, Bloomberg 991 Washington DC, Bloomberg 929 Boston, DAB Digital Radio London, SiriusXM121, and around the world on Bloombergradio.com and the Bloomberg Business App. Good day to you.
I'm Nathan Hager. We begin today's program with some key economic data in the US. On Friday, we get non-farm payrolls for the month of April at 8:30 a.m.
Wall Street time. Here with us for more on what to expect on jobs Friday and how that data could affect Fed policy is Stuart Paul, US economist with Bloomberg Economics. Stuart, great to speak with you.
I mean, it seems like we've been in this low higher low fire environment for a while now. Are the April numbers going to change that? You know, I don't think that the April numbers are going to change the thematic view that this is a low higher lowf fire situation, a low higher low fire environment.
Right now, the consensus expects about 60,000 jobs were added during the month of April. And that's a notable slowdown from the hiring pace registered in March when about 178,000 workers were added to payrolls. Now 60,000 would still be a relatively strong reading.
The break even hiring pace, that hiring pace that's needed to hold the unemployment rate steady is likely closer to about 35,000 jobs added.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- uk elections
- rba decision
- stocks outlook
- labor market
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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