Episode summary
Holiday Special: 2026 Tech Trends with Ives and Munster | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 39 min · Hosts: Nathan Hager · Guests: Gene Munster, Dan Ives
Summary
The hour focused on whether the AI buildout is still in an early phase or starting to hit limits. The guests argued that the cycle is still early, with one calling it roughly the second or third inning and the other saying it is still around the third inning, despite volatility in AI-linked stocks. They framed current weakness as a market air pocket between heavy capital spending and clear monetization, not as evidence that the trend has broken.
A major theme was spending by hyperscalers and the knock-on effects for chips, memory, and data-center infrastructure. The guests said memory prices have surged, long-term supply agreements are multiplying, and that could pressure margins before normalization arrives. They also said the market will demand clearer evidence that AI is lifting revenues and margins at companies such as Google, Meta, Microsoft and others.
They rejected the idea that the current setup resembles the dot-com bubble, arguing that today’s giants have real earnings, balance sheets, and a broader infrastructure buildout behind them. Still, they flagged risks around software names exposed to AI disruption, while staying constructive on Microsoft, Apple, Meta and SpaceX over the longer term.
Key takeaways
- The guests said the AI buildout is still early, with one putting the market around the second or third inning and another around the third inning.
- One guest said hyperscaler capex growth could move from about 24% to close to 40% in six months and above 50% later.
- The guests said memory prices have risen 3 to 400% in six months and now account for about 15% of core compute infrastructure costs.
- They argued the market is not a 1999-style bubble because today’s big tech names have real earnings, strong balance sheets and visible demand.
- One guest said software names exposed to AI disruption, including Adobe, are among the names to avoid, while Microsoft and Apple remain preferred ideas.
Notable quotes
“we're still early, whether it's the second or third inning. And I think that from like a rational perspective that seems irrational”
“if you go out there and tell people that they're going to lose their jobs and then their electricity bill is going to go up higher because a data center is being built in their backyard”
“this is much bigger than any sort of like little infrastructure buildout. It's it's a it's a tech revolution”
“I think Microsoft's the most oversold tech stock you especially when it comes to large cap”
How the episode opens
Thank you so much for joining us for this special edition of Bloomberg Daybreak. I'm Nathan Hager. US markets are closed for the Independence Day holiday and it's become a tradition for the 4th of July.
You got the fireworks, the Nathan's hot dog eating contest, and Gene Monster and Dan Ies for the hour on Bloomberg Daybreak. That's right, we have a special 1-hour high-tech roundt once again with two of Wall Street's most influential analysts in the space. Gene Monster, managing partner at Deepwater Asset Management, and Dan Ies, the former head of global technology research at Wedbush Securities.
We should note we did tape this conversation a few days before the holiday, but it's great to have the both of you back with us for this round table, and I know you like to both talk about where things stand in the AI investment cycle, where we are. So, Dan, uh, here's what you told us last time we did this conversation at the beginning of the new year. It's 1000 p.m.
in this AI party that goes to 4 a.m. This is just the first step in two trillion of AI capbacks.
Well, since then it's kind of gotten a little bumpy as far as the clock goes for the AI party, hasn't it, Dan?
Yeah, look, we've always said I mean in the party DJ could stop playing music. Glass could drop in the dance floor. Cops could come to try to break out for noise violation, but that's going to happen.
But the party's going to continue and we think right now it's still 11 11:30 p.m. in the party third inning in the in the baseball game because you've only gone through 15% of the capbacks the monetization spreading and you see it from memory to what we see on the infrastructure to energy from the NEO clouds.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- 2026 tech trends
- global tech outlook
- equity research
- ai and software
- semiconductors
Companies and tickers mentioned
- Deepwater Asset Management
- Wedbush
- Bloomberg
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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