Episode summary

Instant Reaction: The Fed Decides | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition · · Hosts: Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro

Instant Reaction: The Fed Decides | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition – Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition

Summary

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and kept its forward guidance flexible, saying it can still cut later if warranted. Two governors dissented for a quarter-point cut, and the discussion quickly turned to whether one of those dissents, especially Chris Waller’s, could be read as a signal in the race to replace Jay Powell later this year.

The panel argued that the statement was deliberately plain and that the bigger story is the split inside the Fed over the labor market. One side emphasized lower immigration and a much lower breakeven pace for payroll growth; the other pointed to weakening hiring and signs of labor-market strain. The host and guests repeatedly returned to the idea that the economy can look strong in GDP terms while payroll growth stays subdued.

A second theme was that AI, fiscal stimulus, and foreign demand for US assets continue to support markets and growth. The guests said US yields remain attractive, foreign buying has stayed strong, and AI-related capital spending is increasingly important for earnings, productivity, and bond-market pricing. Several guests also warned that policy responses such as trade barriers or credit-card rate caps could backfire by tightening conditions or stoking inflation.

Key takeaways

  • The Fed held rates steady, with two dissents for a 25 basis point cut, and kept open the option of future easing.
  • The panel said Chris Waller’s dissent could be read as a leadership signal, though one guest called that interpretation unfair.
  • A central disagreement is whether weak payroll growth reflects lower labor supply from immigration or weaker labor demand.
  • One guest said the bond market still looks “perfectly priced” for slower growth, steady credit, and eventual curve steepening.
  • Guests argued AI spending is now a major macro driver, supporting productivity, earnings, and foreign demand for US assets.
  • One guest warned that caps on credit-card rates or broader onshoring policies could tighten financial conditions and raise inflation risk.

Notable quotes

“pretty much as expected, John, no change in rates and the Fed leaves open the option of cutting rates in the future”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition at 0:34

“The statement keeps the line about considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range, suggesting more rate cuts are possible”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition at 0:58

“That descent will be described by many in this market as an audition for the top job of the Federal Reserve”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition at 3:20

“I think it is a bit unfair. I mean Chris is very very steady and stable and has had his whole career as a PhD economist doing research going after the data being data dependent”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition at 3:29

“It is absolutely the case that the labor market data has become slower in terms of job growth”

— A speaker on Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition at 6:03

How the episode opens

Markets move fast. Get the insights you need in 10 minutes with Barclay's Brief, a podcast from Barclay's Investment Bank. Each week, our experts analyze market themes, helping you anticipate what's next. Listen to Barclay's Brief wherever you get your podcasts. Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. The

Fed decision seconds away unchanges the expectation. With the call is Mike the King.

Well, pretty much as expected, John, no change in rates and the Fed leaves open the option of cutting rates in the future. Steven Myron and Chris Waller descent in favor of a rate cut. Michelle Bowman does not.

Waller's descent, of course, could be read as an effort to retain his place as a finalist to replace J. Pal later this year. The statement keeps the line about considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range, suggesting more rate cuts are possible.

There's no hint, however, of what that would lead them to do that or when. The economic assessment is very short and relative to recent stations right slightly positive. Available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace.

It says job gains have remained low and the unemployment rate has shown some signs of stabilization. Inflation remains somewhat elevated. The officials say uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated, but they don't emphasize jobs as they have the last three statements or inflation as the major concern.

The committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. The statement says the open market desk at the New York Fed is again told to maintain an ample level of reserves by buying Treasury bills or if necessary maturities of up to 3 years or less.

From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →

Topics

  • fed policy decision
  • interest rates
  • monetary policy
  • us macro outlook

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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.

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