Episode summary
Instant Reaction: US Adds 162,000 Jobs, Topping All Estimates | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 25 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Damian Sassower · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Amy Wu Silverman, Kristina Campmany
Summary
August payrolls rose 162,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.1%, a much stronger report than economists expected and a sharp reversal from the prior month’s revision. The host and guests framed the release as a “wow” number that pushed Treasury yields higher, knocked stock futures lower, and raised the odds that the Fed could still hike in September rather than cut. They stressed that the revision story mattered as much as the headline, with the two-month net revision adding 55,000 jobs and broader labor-market measures still looking firm.
Claudia Sahm argued that the labor data remain noisy, but not meaningless, and that the Fed is likely to stay focused on the unemployment rate and inflation rather than on one payroll print. She said the September meeting looks like a coin flip, with the labor market not clearly delivering downside risks that would force a dovish pivot.
Amy Wu Silverman said equity volatility had been complacent before the report, but that VIX may still hold in the 15-16 range even after repricing. Kristina Campmany argued the report strengthens the case for shorter duration in bonds and helps the hawkish side of the Fed debate, while also pointing to continued value in EM local-currency debt and selected high-yielding currencies.
Key takeaways
- The August jobs report surprised to the upside with 162,000 payroll gains and a 4.1% unemployment rate, pushing yields higher and futures lower, according to the host.
- Claudia Sahm said the labor market is still noisy month to month, but the Fed will likely keep watching unemployment and inflation more than the payroll headline.
- Sahm described the September Fed meeting as a “coin flip,” but said today’s jobs data does not create strong downside labor-market pressure for a dovish move.
- Amy Wu Silverman said options markets had been pricing complacently around payrolls, and she expects VIX could still hover around the 15-16 area.
- Kristina Campmany said the report supports shorter-duration positioning in bonds and reinforces her preference for EM local-currency debt over long-duration exposure.
Notable quotes
“Non-farm payrolls rising therefore month by 162,000. That is a well three times the estimate”
“This is a wow report with wow market move. Equities move south as well”
“I think we are going to go into the September meeting with really a coin flip”
“the market is pricing this right. This this goes in the favor of the Fed officials who think it's time to start hiking”
“I wouldn't be surprised even with how things move in terms of rights pricing. Your VIX still floating around that 1516 handle”
How the episode opens
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Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. — This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. — And with your breaking news on the payrolls numbers for August, the twomonth payroll net revision data adds 55,000 jobs to the United States. Non-farm payrolls rising therefore month by 162,000. That is a well three times the estimate 55,000. The unemployment rate though stays the same 4.1% the estimate had been for that to uh stay on hold and indeed that's where we are.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- jobs report
- unemployment rate
- nonfarm payrolls
- bond market reaction
- labor market momentum
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RY
- IVZ
- New Century Advisors
- RBC
- Invesco
- Bloomberg
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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