Episode summary
Midterm Elections a Referendum on Trump; US-Iran Pursue Diplomacy | Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · 18 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Jon Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz
Summary
Voters headed to the polls in the US midterm elections with control of Congress at stake, and the hosts framed the contest as a referendum on President Trump’s second term. An analyst said history favors the opposition in midterms, while early voting and polling suggested Democrats were positioned to retake the House and potentially the Senate, though the race remained close enough that the final outcome could surprise markets and Washington alike.
The broadcast also emphasized how legal fights over mail-in ballots were already shaping the election. The Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s bid involving California ballots, while a separate court ruling left unresolved questions about how states handle ballots from people the government says may be non-citizens. The hosts and an analyst warned that election results could take time because of state counting rules and possible challenges.
Beyond politics, the show covered market implications and major corporate news. An analyst said a post-election fade in uncertainty could help stocks, while Apple gave investors a mixed read under new CEO John Ternus: holiday revenue guidance was upbeat, but margin pressure from memory costs and Siri AI spending weighed on the stock. The hosts also noted reports that the US and Iran were reviewing mediator proposals to avert another round of all-out war.
Key takeaways
- The host said Democrats needed just three House seats and four Senate seats, making control of Congress highly contestable on election night.
- An analyst said midterm history favors the opposition, but cautioned against reading too much into polling and prediction markets.
- The hosts said the Supreme Court rejected the Trump administration’s California mail-in-ballot effort, keeping election litigation in focus.
- An analyst at JPMorgan Asset Management said the post-election environment could be a buying opportunity for stocks.
- The hosts said Apple guided holiday revenue up 7% to 10%, but margin pressure from memory costs and Siri AI spending hurt sentiment.
Notable quotes
“voters head to the polls today to determine control of Congress as well as a range of local issues”
“Incumbents almost always fare poorly in them”
“I think that's going to be a bit of a closer margin than we're going to see there”
“Apple acknowledging that it's dealing with those sharply higher component costs”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager. — And I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're following today. — Karen, election day. It's here. After months of campaigning and hundreds of millions of dollars spent, voters head to the polls today to determine control of Congress as well as a range of local issues. President Trump delivered his closing argument for Republicans in front of a local issue in the nation's capital, the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool.
Very proud of it. We went through a lot with vandalism. The vandalism was unprecedented. People don't like talking about it. — Wearing a white USA baseball cap, the president spent about 20 minutes talking about the renovation before turning to attacks on Democrats. The Democrats want to blow all of this up by electing communist jihadists, and the United States Congress will not allow that to happen.
President Trump's speech capped off nearly a month of rallies in mostly red states, including traditional GOP strongholds like Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, and Iowa, where Republicans are now playing defense. Well, Nathan, about 57 million Americans cast ballots prior to election day. And the University of Florida Election Lab says in the 27 early voting states that track party registration, 43% have been cast by Democrats compared to 32% for Republicans.
Yale School of Management election Gotham Makunda says he wouldn't make predictions on tonight's outcome based on the early vote. to the extent that we can decode data from the early vote outside of Arizona, it is sort of somewhere slightly above Democratic best case estimates. Like it's so good that Florida, which two days ago, I would have told you two days ago I would have told you Democrats have absolutely no chance of a victory in Florida.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us midterm elections
- trump presidency
- apple earnings outlook
- siri ai digital assistant
- us iran diplomacy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AAPL
- Apple
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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