Episode summary
Warsh Boosts Rate Hold Expectations; Midterm Debates Ramp Up Nationwide | Bloomberg Daybreak: US...
Bloomberg Daybreak: US Edition
· · Guests: Kevin Warsh, Dan Sullivan, Mary Peltola, Donald Trump
Summary
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF meetings in Bangkok reinforced market bets that the Federal Reserve will leave rates unchanged at the end of the month. He avoided any direct guidance on policy, but repeated that the Fed is focused on price stability and said he does not “prejudge meetings.” He also framed AI as a major productivity boost and a potential positive supply shock, while acknowledging that it is lifting demand and contributing to price pressures in the short run.
The program also focused on the growing midterm campaign fight in several states. In Alaska, Senator Dan Sullivan distanced himself from Donald Trump on issues including Russia, Ukraine and healthcare as he faces Democrat Mary Peltola in a close race. In Maine, Susan Collins and Troy Jackson exchanged sharp lines in a debate marked by a protest interruption. In Massachusetts, Governor Maura Healey defended abortion access and held a commanding polling lead over Mike Manne. The show also noted Trump’s refusal to rule out the “Mother of all Bombs” on Iran after the elections, alongside new concerns about Taiwan tightening AI-chip export controls and CoreWeave’s rising credit risk.
Key takeaways
- The host says Kevin Warsh gave no policy signal, which helped push rate-hike bets lower and reinforced expectations for a steady Fed decision.
- Warsh called AI “the most consequential change” of his lifetime and argued it could create a medium-term positive supply shock.
- Dan Sullivan tried to separate himself from Donald Trump on Russia and healthcare as Mary Peltola keeps a narrow polling edge in Alaska.
- Susan Collins and Troy Jackson are within the margin of error in Maine after a debate that was interrupted by a protester.
- The host says Maura Healey remains well ahead in Massachusetts polling while abortion access stayed central to the debate.
Notable quotes
“we made very clear that we would deliver price stability and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago”
“I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in uh saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year”
“It's probably the most important thing that's happening in the global economy on the upside”
“I'd say the advent of this new technology is probably the most consequential change to the US and the global economy in my lifetime to this point”
“I don't trust anyone”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. — Good morning. I'm Karen Moscow and I'm Alexis Christopherus. Here are the stories we're following today. Well, we begin in Bangkok here, Alexis, where Fed Chair Kevin Worsh spoke at the International Monetary Funds annual meetings. In a moderated discussion early this morning, Worsh made no remarks on monetary policy or his outlook for the US economy apart from reiterating the Fed's commitment to price stability.
At the Federal Reserve, we made very clear that we would deliver price stability and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago. I don't prejudge meetings. I don't believe in uh saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year. But that was the situation
Disappointed of the old they can all turn it off. Um it's a new chapter at the Fed and we don't we we we're not in that business anymore. — And rate hike bets fell during Fed Sher Worsh's remarks. Worsh also talked about how global economic activity is flowing through the US.
What are we seeing in the global economy as it affects the US? I'm going to say broadly over the month or so that's transpired since then. the world has broadly conformed to our expectations. — Um we'll be meeting a couple more times this year and that will be the crystallizing moment. But right now we have structural growth. We have an investment surge.
It's not hitting every country at the same element. But in the United States, we're having a massive investment surge. — Fed chair Kevin Warish also called AI a major boost to productivity in his comments at the IMF annual meeting. and Karen Fed chair Worsh's task force on productivity and jobs will hold a field hearing in San Francisco next month.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed rate hold expectations
- midterm election debates
- republican vs trump policy differences
- iran military threats
- international monetary fund meetings
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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