Episode summary
Airbnb Gains as ‘Healthy’ Demand Fuels Faster Growth in 2026 | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Mandeep Singh, Anurag Rana, Nicole D'Souza, Edward Najarian
Summary
Airbnb drew the strongest reaction as the analysts said the company is benefiting from healthy travel demand, easier comparisons, and event-driven demand tied to the FIFA World Cup and other major sports. The guest said Airbnb is also seeing support from reserve now, pay later options, improving supply growth, and efforts to broaden beyond vacation rentals into hotels, services, and experiences, even if those additions still contribute less than 5% of revenue and are dilutive to margins.
The discussion on online travel and software centered on AI risk. The analysts argued that ChatGPT-style trip planning could eventually shift bookings away from Expedia, Booking, and TripAdvisor and toward direct hotel and airline relationships, reducing OTA commission economics. At the same time, they said the near-term revenue impact of AI products is still limited, and they pointed to stronger short-term travel demand, including the Winter Olympics and the World Cup, as a partial offset.
The software segment was more defensive. The analyst said investors are questioning whether software has a terminal value if AI absorbs core functions, and argued the companies best protected are those with deep domain expertise, large enterprise stickiness, and critical workflows. The final segment on American Express focused on Platinum card economics, where higher fees and a rising mix of new Platinum customers were described as supporting revenue and offsetting higher rewards spending.
Key takeaways
- The guest said Airbnb is benefiting from the FIFA World Cup, reserve now pay later, and improving supply growth.
- The analyst said Airbnb’s hotels, services, and experiences business is still less than 5% of revenue and remains margin-dilutive.
- Nicole D'Souza said AI booking tools could push travelers toward direct hotel and airline bookings, pressuring Expedia, Booking, and TripAdvisor.
- Anurag Rana said the market’s fear is that software terminal value could go to zero if AI replaces core functions.
- Edward Nagarian said American Express saw fee per new Platinum card rise from 196 to 282 as the mix shifted toward Platinum customers.
Notable quotes
“I think anytime you have a big event coming up, which in this case it's the FIFA World Cup in the summer, good point”
“the fear of the terminal value going to zero. You cannot undo it in the next few months”
“they now don't need the visibility, per se, on booking experience”
“the fee per new card went up from 196 in the third quarter to 282”
How the episode opens
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Tons of earnings coming out here. A lot of uh tech stuff, a lot of user economy stuff. I'm looking at Airbnb, Instacart, all kinds of stuff.
Mandep Singh, he covers all the tech industry for Bloomberg Intelligence. He's got the team which he manages all around the world for Bloomberg Intelligence. Mandep, let's start with Airbnb.
Um, I've seen a stock trading up here. They had some pretty good numbers. I was kind of surprised there.
Double digit revenue growth in 2026. What's the story there? Yeah, I think anytime you have a big event coming up, which in this case it's the FIFA World Cup in the summer, good point.
That's always good news for Airbnb. And that's what you're seeing. I think uh I mean uh expectations were low, but clearly they're seeing some lift from uh big event as well as the reserve now pay later, which is another way to stimulate demand.
But overall supply growth seems to be improving and they want to expand into hotels and other areas. Uh it may compress their take rates a little bit but there is no doubt that they want to expand the footprint of you know what they have to offer uh on the platform.
They've also um thanks to a lot of marketing made clear that they want to expand into services as well for guest sourcing at Airbnb venues uh wherever they go. How much is is that a meaningful contributor to revenue? No, not yet.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- airbnb bookings
- online travel earnings
- ai software demand pressure
- payment and booking innovations
- credit card premium growth
Companies and tickers mentioned
- ABNB
- PINS
- EXPE
- TRIP
- AXP
- Airbnb
- Expedia
- TripAdvisor
- American Express
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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