Episode summary
Apple’s Upbeat Forecast Clouded by Cost Fears | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Dan Ives, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Vincent Piazza
Summary
Apple delivered what one guest called a “staggering quarter,” with especially strong iPhone results in China and solid services growth, but the stock still fell because investors wanted a clearer AI roadmap. The guest argued the market is looking past sales and margins and focusing instead on whether Apple can define a credible AI monetization strategy, potentially through the Google Gemini partnership, outside talent, and a future subscription model. He also said tariffs may be past their worst point and that China has become a tailwind again after years of tension.
A second segment turned to Kevin Warsh’s Fed chair prospects. Danielle DiMartino Booth said she is cautiously hopeful, praising Warsh’s skepticism of QE and expecting him to favor a narrower mandate, continued balance-sheet reduction, and lower rates if the data support it. She also warned confirmation could be complicated by the politics around Jerome Powell and the administration.
The final discussion covered Exxon Mobil and Chevron, where a guest said both firms are prioritizing capital discipline, upstream growth, and cash returns. Exxon was portrayed as better positioned because of Permian and Guyana exposure, while natural gas was highlighted as a structural winner thanks to LNG and data-center demand.
Key takeaways
- The guest said Apple’s quarter was strong enough to justify a 5% to 8% stock move, but the market cares more about AI than sales or margins.
- The guest said Apple’s China demand and services business are tailwinds, while tariffs look less severe than before.
- Danielle DiMartino Booth said Kevin Warsh would likely favor lower rates, a narrower Fed mandate, and continued balance-sheet reduction.
- The guest said Exxon has the stronger growth profile versus Chevron because of the Permian and Guyana.
- The guest said natural gas looks structurally better than crude because of LNG demand and data-center power needs.
Notable quotes
“I mean that was a staggering quarter in terms of what we saw on iPhone specifically in terms of China”
“what's the AI strategy? What's the monetization? Show us the playbook”
“I think worse is probably in the rearview mirror”
“I'm cautiously hopeful”
“Exxon definitely because of the franchise in the Perian because of Gana”
How the episode opens
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Big big week for tech earnings here. The Apple numbers came out last night. I thought they were like really good.
Uh, so what does the stock market do? Down 1% in the in the stock year today. I've been doing the stock market thing for 40 years.
No idea how it works. Dan Ives does global head of technology research, Weber Securities, joins us live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Dan, what did you make of the quarter last night for
I mean that was a staggering quarter in terms of what we saw on iPhone specifically in terms of China. I mean China massive tailwind services strong. I I'd almost say best case scenario that you could have seen the stock performance today.
I'd say it's a massive headscratcher. I mean, this is look, this is one where I think this stock should be up 5 to 8% relative, you know, to to what they perform and the guidance, but I think it also just comes down to we've talked about it so much on the show, right? Is that what's the AI strategy?
What's the monetization? Show us the playbook. That's not Certino.
That's not their DNA. And I think that's why the stocks kind of it's a little Larry David eh in terms of reaction.
So how has it been their AI push? Because they have faced concerns and they've really lagged behind their mega cap tech peers. — Look, I mean they they've watched AI from the stands and I think that's been disappointing to many including us because you have the biggest install base in the world.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- apple forecast
- cloud cost fears
- technology research
- equity outlook
- market action
Companies and tickers mentioned
- AAPL
- Apple
- Wedbush Securities
- QI Research
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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