Episode summary
GM Sees Up to $2 Billion Profit Jump in 2026, More Buybacks | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Steve Man, Sid Philip, Thomas Black, Janet Lorin
Summary
General Motors said profit could rise as much as $2 billion in 2026, and the discussion centered on how much of the business still depends on internal-combustion engines. Bloomberg Intelligence’s autos analyst argued GM’s portfolio is still roughly 85% to 90% ICE and only 10% to 15% EVs, with the Chevy Bolt as an important lower-cost rollout. He said easier fuel-economy rules could reduce penalty costs and support a slower, more profitable path that favors trucks and ICE volumes over hybrids.
The aviation segment focused on an uneven airline recovery. A guest said American Airlines is leaning into premium demand, while JetBlue’s wider loss reflects pressure at the low end and a longer road to free cash flow. Boeing’s quarter was framed as another step in its recovery: it generated cash for a second straight quarter, boosted by its digital aviation sale, and is trying to lift 737 Max production toward a much higher long-term target.
UPS and Yale’s endowment both illustrated businesses under pressure to adapt. UPS is shrinking Amazon exposure, cutting up to 30,000 jobs, and automating facilities to become more profitable. Yale’s endowment model was described as under strain because private equity is harder to exit, taxes and federal funding fights are forcing liquidity needs, and simple stocks and bonds have recently outperformed the classic Yale-style allocation.
Key takeaways
- The autos analyst said GM is still overwhelmingly ICE-heavy, with EVs only about 10% to 15% of the mix.
- The analyst argued looser fuel-economy rules could lower costs and help GM and peers prioritize profitable trucks over hybrids.
- A guest said American Airlines is targeting premium demand, while JetBlue is taking a longer path to profitability and free cash flow by end-2027.
- Boeing is recovering but still needs much higher 737 Max production to unlock more cash flow from a $682 billion backlog.
- Thomas Black said UPS is in its final year of retrenchment, including up to 30,000 job cuts and more automation.
- Janet Lorin said Yale’s endowment model is under pressure as higher rates, taxes, and liquidity needs make private assets less attractive.
Notable quotes
“they do have still they do still have one more major rollout coming out, which is the Chevy Bolt”
“GM's earnings for 2026 is probably a little bit light”
“American Airlines is taking a more bullish view of the year ahead”
“UPS continues to shrink to become more profitable”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Earnings Palooa in full swing here.
General Motor is the latest report as well. It expects profit to grow as much as $2 billion this year. And like RTX plans to return more of that to shareholders with a higher dividend as well as buybacks.
Earlier GM's CEO Mary Barra joined Bloomberg's Matt Miller to discuss their earnings and their push on EVs. Remember those? For more on the company's earnings and what she had to say, let's bring in our Steve Man.
He covers autos for us here at Bloomberg Intelligence. He's the Bloomberg Intelligence global autos and industrials analyst. Steve, um, when Mary was talking about their portfolio of internal combustion engines and their portfolio of EV vehicles, what does that portfolio actually look like?
I mean, is it 7030 ICE engines to EVs? 8020.
Oh, it's actually ICE engines much greater. Uh, I know they have a full portfolio of EVs, but you're talking about like 85 90% ICE versus 10 to 15% EVs. So, you know, they do have a big portfolio, but it was just at the beginning of rolling them out.
Um, you know, they do have still they do still have one more major rollout coming out, which is the Chevy Bolt, a smaller vehicles, which the industry and GM thinks that uh that's where the market is going, a cheaper, more convenient EV.
GM stock up 9% today to a 52- week and an alltime high. Um, so the street likes what they're hearing.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- gm earnings
- airline earnings
- boeing cash generation
- ups cost cuts
- yale endowment taxes
Companies and tickers mentioned
- GM
- AAL
- JBLU
- BA
- UPS
- General Motors
- American Airlines Group
- JetBlue Airways
- Boeing
- United Parcel Service
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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