Episode summary
Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Tom Keene, Jonathan Ferro, Lisa Abramowicz
Summary
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s message after the latest policy decision was that a December rate cut is no longer a given, and markets immediately repriced that risk. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points for a second straight meeting, but Powell emphasized that a further move in December is “far from a foregone conclusion,” while also acknowledging “strongly differing views” inside the committee. Treasury yields rose and equities wobbled as the market absorbed the possibility of a pause.
The discussion focused on why Powell sounded more cautious even after cutting: inflation is still above target, the labor market is slowing but not breaking, and the data flow has been distorted by the shutdown. A guest argued that the Fed is operating with limited visibility but still sees the labor market as “okay,” while inflation remains around 3%, leaving little room for automatic easing. Another participant said the decision looked like a repricing toward December, not a policy shock.
A second theme was the Fed’s internal politics. Panelists said the committee appears more divided than usual, making consensus harder and Powell’s influence less absolute than in prior eras. The broader read was that the Fed is supportive of risk assets, but it is not promising a smooth path from here, especially if inflation stays sticky and the government shutdown keeps obscuring the data.
Key takeaways
- The host said Powell’s post-meeting message reset expectations by making a December cut “far from a foregone conclusion.”
- A guest argued the Fed cut despite limited evidence of labor-market deterioration, with inflation still near 3% and unemployment near 4%.
- A panelist said the market reaction was a repricing toward a higher bar for December, not a rejection of the Fed’s broader easing cycle.
- Another analyst said the committee’s dissents show a more divided Fed, making consensus harder for Powell and his successor.
- A guest said the shutdown has left policymakers and investors “blind,” increasing the importance of incoming data once it resumes.
Notable quotes
“the takeaway from that is that we haven't made a decision about December”
“the Fed is probably going to pause in December unless there's some data that forces them to do another cut”
“the committee now is we've done enough. Let's sit back and see what happens”
How the episode opens
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This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- fed rate cut
- jay powell press conference
- treasuries selloff
- labor market slowdown
- policy rate uncertainty
Watch the episode
Watch “Instant Reaction: Jay Powell on the Fed Decision | Bloomberg Intelligence” on YouTube
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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