Episode summary
Instant Reaction: Nvidia’s Upbeat Sales Forecast Shows AI Boom Remains Strong | Bloomberg...
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 25 min · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec, Ed Ludlow, Paul Sweeney · Guests: Jensen Huang, Jay Goldberg, Mandeep Singh, Anurag Rana
Summary
Nvidia delivered a stronger-than-expected fiscal fourth quarter and a bullish first-quarter outlook, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure spending is still running hot. The company said fiscal first-quarter revenue should be about $78 billion, well above the Street’s $72.78 billion estimate, while fourth-quarter revenue came in at $68.1 billion and data center revenue reached $62.3 billion.
The discussion focused on what the beat says about the durability of AI demand, margin resilience, and whether supply or China constraints could slow the business. The host and analysts said the forecast does not assume any compute revenue from China, but Nvidia later said it has secured supply to meet demand for several quarters and that U.S. authorities granted a license to ship small amounts of H200 chips to China for specific customers. Gross margin held up better than expected, which one analyst said suggests Nvidia can pass through higher memory costs and keep pricing power.
The reaction extended beyond Nvidia itself, with Broadcom, TSMC and Micron also trading higher. Analysts argued that the print supports the broader capex cycle and suggests Nvidia is still benefiting from a shift toward selling full systems and AI infrastructure, not just chips.
Key takeaways
- Nvidia’s fiscal first-quarter revenue guide of about $78 billion beat the Street estimate of $72.78 billion by a wide margin.
- Fourth-quarter data center revenue of $62.3 billion beat expectations and helped drive the stock higher after hours.
- The host and analysts said the outlook excludes China compute revenue, leaving any China upside as incremental.
- An analyst said Nvidia’s margins imply it can absorb higher memory costs and still preserve pricing power.
- The discussion framed hyperscaler spending as still supportive of the AI buildout and the broader semiconductor group.
Notable quotes
“the company saying for the first quarter sees revenue of 76.44 44 billion to 79.56 billion. That is easily above the street estimate of 72.78 million”
“Nvidia saying computing demand is growing exponentially”
“does not assume any compute revenue from China in the outlook. Does not factor in any compute revenue of China that I guess is something to check off the list”
“Gross margins expected to be 74.9% and 75% respectively, plus or minus 50 basis point”
How the episode opens
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Let's go to actually the outlook. First quarter revenue forecast beating estimates. Uh the company saying for the first quarter sees revenue of 76.44 44 billion to 79.56 billion.
That is easily above the street estimate of 72.78 million. Let's go back to the fourth quarter. Data center revenue that coming in better than expected 62.3 billion versus the street estimate of 60.36 billion.
Uh Nvidia saying computing demand is growing exponentially. Fourth quarter adjusted gross margin we expected 75% we got 75.2%. Uh fourth quarter revenue coming in overall 68.1 billion better than the street estimate of 65.91 billion.
Tim we're seeing that stock up now about 2.2% in the aftermarket.
Yeah, just to remind everybody where we are with these numbers. The first the company sees first quarter revenue coming in 76.44 billion to $79.56 billion. That beat estimates handedly handed of 72.78 billion.
As Carol mentioned, Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong saying in a statement, computing demand is growing ex exponentially. Uh we also fourth quarter data center revenue worth repeating a beat there 62.3 billion. The estimates for 60.36 billion and that gross margin coming in above estimates at 75.2%.
Our Sarah Frier on our live blog saying that shares are growing up on that data center revenue beat. Hey Ed Lelo, come on in. Uh I know you're looking at uh these numbers.
What jumps out for you? Yeah, I mean straight to the outlook and and by the way I would have done the same thing. Go right there.
You know revenue in the fiscal first quarter $78 billion plus or minus 2%. Um you know consensus was really high but like going into this um it's a very simple equation.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- nvidia sales forecast
- ai compute demand
- semiconductors outlook
- market reaction
- ai investment bubble concerns
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVDA
- Nvidia
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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