Episode summary
Instant Reaction: Tesla Beats Estimates, Hints at EV Demand Rebound | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Carol Massar, Tim Stenovec, Ed Ludlow · Guests: Steve Man, Ross Gerber
Summary
Tesla reported a stronger-than-expected first quarter, with adjusted EPS of 41 cents versus the 34-cent consensus, gross margin of 21.1% versus 17.7% expected, and free cash flow of $1.44 billion versus an expected negative $1.86 billion. The hosts framed the print as a meaningful beat, but the bigger story was Tesla’s claim that demand for its vehicles is rebounding across multiple regions, including APAC, South America, North America and EMEA.
The discussion centered on whether Tesla should still be valued as an EV company or mainly as an AI and robotics story. One analyst argued that investors increasingly treat Tesla like an AI and robotics company, citing autonomy, robotaxi rollout, and the high forward multiple relative to the Mag 7. The analyst also said Tesla is broadening its auto footprint outside its core markets, with improving sales in Japan, South Korea and emerging interest in India.
The panel also focused on the company’s longer-dated projects, including Optimus, cybercab and the Tesla Semi, while noting that Tesla’s capex guide remains at $20 billion and does not appear to include any chip-fab buildout. A guest was enthusiastic about the return of demand in the core EV business, while another guest was more skeptical about whether robotaxis and Optimus will translate into near-term economics.
Key takeaways
- Tesla beat estimates on EPS, gross margin and free cash flow, which one analyst said investors are likely to like.
- The company said demand is rebounding in APAC, South America, North America and EMEA, signaling possible relief in the core EV business.
- One analyst argued Tesla is now valued more like an AI and robotics company than an automaker, given its 183x forward earnings multiple.
- The analyst said Tesla’s autonomy rollout is expanding, with unsupervised robotaxi rides in three cities and robotaxi miles roughly doubling sequentially.
- A guest said Tesla’s $20 billion capital expenditure guide does not appear to include any chip-factory buildout, leaving a major funding question unresolved.
Notable quotes
“First quarter adjusted EPS, folks, 41 cents a share, 7 cents better than what the street was expecting”
“We saw continued growth in demand for our vehicles in markets in APAC and South America, but also seeing a rebound of demand in both uh the emerging markets uh and also in Africa and in North America”
“I think I think investors will like this. Uh if I look leaning to their investor deck, shareholder deck, uh they are ramping up the cyber uh robotaxi business”
“In other words, this is what we're saying. Investors value this as an AI and robotics company”
“They haven't changed that in this deck and unless I missed it, and I can check right now. But to build a chip fab that they're talking about would take in the trillions of dollars”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. — Yeah, let's go right to Tesla. It just crossed the Bloomberg terminal. First quarter adjusted EPS, folks, 41 cents a share, 7 cents better than what the street was expecting. Um that was that's adjusted EPS. First quarter gross margin coming in stronger than forecast, certainly a sign of profitability. 21.1% versus an estimate of 17.7%. First quarter revenue coming in slightly higher than what the street was forecasting, Tim. 22.39 billion. The street estimate was for 22.19 billion.
Okay, so some other headlines crossing the Bloomberg terminal. You mentioned free cash flow, but worth repeating cuz it is a red head, Carol. First quarter free cash flow, 1.44 billion.
The estimate was for a negative 1.86 billion. Uh the Tesla uh communications around earnings are a slide deck, so it's kind of tough to go through, but Tesla says that the cybercab, the Tesla semi, the megacap production starting in 2026, so that's this year. Tesla also saying the first-gen production lines for Optimus, that's the humanoid robot, are being installed.
Tesla also saying that cybercab uh and the Tesla semi are on schedule for 2026. The company says uh seeing its rebounds in demand for EMEA and North America. And we should note that the company also says that tailwinds are persisting for the US autos business and it received approval for full self-driving in the Netherlands in April.
All right, the stock, as you see though, uh investors liking what it has to say about uh the first quarter in terms of a lot of those metrics actually looking better than forecast. Uh and again, uh looking at some of the individual um businesses, the company also saying it launched unsupervised robotaxi rides in Dallas and Houston.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tesla earnings
- ev demand rebound
- auto sales outlook
- global ev demand
- market reaction
Companies and tickers mentioned
- TSLA
- Tesla
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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