Episode summary
Instant Reaction: US Adds 162,000 Jobs, Topping All Estimates | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 25 min · Hosts: Tom Keene, Damian Sassower · Guests: Claudia Sahm, Amy Wu Silverman, Kristina Campmany
Summary
The August US payrolls report came in far stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000 and the unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. The hosts and guests immediately framed it as a meaningful upside surprise, especially because the prior month’s losses were revised away, leaving the labor market looking firmer than the market had assumed. Treasury yields jumped and equity futures turned lower as traders reassessed the path for rates into the September Fed meeting.
Claudia Sahm argued that the report should not be read as pure noise, even though payrolls have been volatile month to month. She pointed to revisions, seasonal effects in education hiring, and the still-stable unemployment rate as more important signals than the headline swing alone. In her view, the Fed will keep focusing on unemployment and inflation, with September still a coin flip.
Amy Wu Silverman said volatility markets had been too complacent heading into the release, while Kristina Campmany argued the report strengthens the case for the Fed to stay hawkish or even hike, because a solid labor market reduces the urgency to cut. Campmany also said bond investors should still prefer shorter duration and warned that supply and fiscal pressures remain a risk for longer-dated bonds.
Key takeaways
- The August payroll gain of 162,000 topped every Bloomberg survey estimate and helped erase the prior month’s job losses on revision.
- Claudia Sahm said the unemployment rate at 4.1% is the more important Fed signal than the noisy month-to-month payroll swings.
- Amy Wu Silverman said options pricing had been complacent and expected volatility to stay elevated even after the jobs shock.
- Kristina Campmany said the report supports a more hawkish Fed stance and favors shorter duration in bonds.
- Campmany also said the yen remains mispriced and that EM carry can still offer value despite crosscurrents.
Notable quotes
“Non-farm payrolls rising therefore month on month by 162,000. That is a well three times the estimate 55,000. The unemployment rate though stays the same 4.1%”
“This is a wow report with wow market move. Equities move south as well. We don't have a VIX number yet, but in the yield space, we have a seismic move”
“I think the Fed will you know is kind of a headline pull out of this. I mean, payrolls have been difficult to read for some time”
“I wouldn't be surprised even with how things move in terms of rights pricing, your VIX still floating around that 1516 handle”
“I think this does today's report probably does fit more on those who are looking to potentially hike in a couple weeks”
How the episode opens
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Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. — This is a breaking news update from Bloomberg. Instant reaction and analysis from our 3,000 journalists and analysts around the world. And with your breaking news on the payrolls numbers for August, the twomonth payroll net revision data adds 55,000 jobs to the United States. Non-farm payrolls rising therefore month on month by 162,000. That is a well three times the estimate 55,000.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- us jobs report
- unemployment rate
- labor market momentum
- bond market reaction
- derivatives strategy
Companies and tickers mentioned
- RY
- IVZ
- New Century Advisors
- RBC
- Invesco
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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