Episode summary
JPMorgan’s Surprise Dealmaking Gain Shows Tariff Fear Easing | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Lisa Mateo · Guests: Alison Williams, Michelle Davis, Nicole D'Souza, Neil Sipes
Summary
U.S. bank earnings pointed to improving dealmaking and trading conditions, with JPMorgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all showing a mix of strength and lingering pressure. Alison Williams said JPMorgan posted a solid quarter with about $1 billion of upside from trading and fees, while advisory activity improved in May and June after an April stall. She also argued that easing tariff fears and better IPO and M&A sentiment should lift expectations for banking fees going forward.
Citigroup’s results reinforced the turnaround case, with the bank’s rates and currencies business up 27% year over year and the stock hitting a 52-week high. Williams said Citi still trades below book value and peers, but that Jane Fraser’s restructuring is moving it toward better returns. Wells Fargo, meanwhile, benefited from the removal of the Fed’s asset cap, but investors were disappointed by a lower net interest income outlook even as buybacks and capital relief remain positives.
The episode also dug into UnitedHealth Group, where Michelle Davis reported that the company quietly booked gains from temporary sales of business stakes to private equity firms. That helped preserve its long streak of earnings beats, but raised concerns that management may be masking underlying weakness. The discussion later turned to dating apps and BlackRock, where analysts highlighted Gen Z’s weaker appetite for dating apps and BlackRock’s push into private markets as ETF flows and fee pressure reshape the asset-management industry.
Key takeaways
- Williams said JPMorgan saw about $1 billion of upside from trading and fees as advisory activity and IPOs improved in May and June.
- Citigroup’s 27% year-over-year jump in rates and currencies revenue supports the case that Jane Fraser’s restructuring is working, even though Citi still trades below book value.
- Wells Fargo’s removed asset cap is a structural positive, but investors focused on weaker net interest income guidance rather than the balance-sheet milestone.
- Michelle Davis said UnitedHealth booked gains from temporary stake sales in a way that would have been enough to avoid missing estimates last quarter.
- Neil Sipes said BlackRock’s second-quarter inflows slowed, but private-market deals should help grow higher-fee organic revenue over time.
Notable quotes
“I think a really good quarter, strong returns, uh, good organic growth, and I think, you know, about a billion dollars of upside with trading and fees”
“We know that they trade at a discount to their book value. They trade at a discount to their peers”
“they approached se several private equity firms and asked them if they wanted to buy stakes off of them of their businesses”
“So, we've seen dating app companies roll out a lot of AI products. Um, I would say right now it seems, at least based on our survey, that they haven't been that wellreceived”
How the episode opens
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I'm Lisa Matteo alongside Paul Sweeney. Big day for bank earnings. Some mixed reports though.
Taking a look at the stock. We have JP Morgan. They're down their shares down about half percent.
Wells Fargo down 5%. We have City up about 1 and a.5%. So here to break it all down for us and what happened with each bank is Allison Williams.
Who else? Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst global banks and asset managers. Allison, thanks for joining us here in the studio.
Good to see you. Um, so let's start with JP Morgan, right? They had some surprise deal making gains.
I mean, is that a sign that tariff fears are easing or how do you take it?
Yeah, I mean, they had a solid quarter. There's always a high bar for for JP Morgan, but I think a really good quarter, strong returns, uh, good organic growth, and I think, you know, about a billion dollars of upside with trading and fees. And so, I think that we, you know, we did see that that fee pick up.
We saw April stall, then we saw fees really did pick up in in May and June. As you said, it really is the the advisory business was big upside um you know for both JP Morgan and city and um we also saw IPOs better and so we have seen that improving sentiment. I think there is going to be a little bit of a lift in terms of some of the expectations for those banking fees going forward as well.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- tariff fear easing
- u.s. bank earnings
- investment banking deals
- fed reserve cap
- gen z dating apps
Companies and tickers mentioned
- JPM
- C
- WFC
- UNH
- BLK
- JPMorgan Chase & Co.
- Citigroup
- Wells Fargo
- UnitedHealth Group
- BlackRock
- Bloomberg
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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