Episode summary
Lowe’s Profit Tops Estimates on Online Growth | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Drew Reading, Mary Ross Gilbert, Liz Hart
Summary
Lowe’s was described as a bit better than feared after results came in against a weak housing backdrop and cautious consumer spending. Drew Reading said same-store sales missed consensus, but the market was likely braced for worse, and he pointed to a roughly 100 basis point hurricane-related comparison issue. Lowe’s also cut its full-year outlook, now seeing flat to up 1% comparable sales for the year, while tariff-related price increases and higher ticket growth are starting to show up more clearly.
The discussion also framed Lowe’s and Home Depot as increasingly aggressive in professional contracting, where Lowe’s is still more DIY-heavy at about 30% pro sales versus Home Depot’s roughly 50/50 mix. Reading said Lowe’s recent acquisition of Foundation Building Materials extends its reach into larger, more complex pro jobs and fits a fragmented distribution market that could keep consolidating.
Mary Ross Gilbert said TJX is benefiting from consumers flocking to value and fresh branded merchandise, with Marmax comparable sales up 6% and Canada up 8%. Liz Hart added that retail real estate remains tight, office demand is strongest in trophy space, and industrial stays healthy even as tariffs and supply-chain shifts reshape leasing demand.
Key takeaways
- Drew Reading said Lowe’s looked "better than feared," even though same-store sales missed estimates and the company trimmed full-year guidance.
- Reading said Lowe’s gets about 30% of sales from professional contractors, versus Home Depot at about 50/50, and is using acquisitions to close the gap.
- Reading expects tariffs to pressure Lowe’s more in Q4 and early 2026, including lumber from Canada and cabinetry tariffs that could reach 50% in January.
- Mary Ross Gilbert said TJX is winning because consumers want value and brands, with Marmax comp sales up 6% and Canada up 8%.
- Liz Hart said U.S. retail availability is 5.3%, office trophy space is below 5% availability, and industrial demand remains strong despite a buildout of supply.
Notable quotes
“Lowe's results could be best characterized as better than feared. Um particularly in light of what we heard from Home Depot yesterday”
“Lo, so Lowe's is about 30% professional contractors, 70% DIY. Home Depot is about 5050, maybe even a little bit higher”
“I think the impact of cost will start to to come in a little greater as we look into Q4 and early 2026”
“So their margins were higher. So the way that TJX stocks at stores is that um they get inventory that hasn't sold at full price stores”
“overall, retail's performing really well this year. Um, lowest availability we've seen is 5% and we're at 5.3 right now”
How the episode opens
Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 10 a.m.
Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Let's bring in Drew Reading, Bloomberg Intelligence US home building analyst to give us a recap of what we need to know about Lowe's results.
Uh Drew, good to speak with you. What is uh what does Lowe's look like when it comes to its results compared with its big arrival, Home Depot? Yeah, so I think Lowe's results could be best characterized as better than feared.
Um particularly in light of what we heard from Home Depot yesterday. Um they did fall short of consensus estimates on same store sales. Um but I think the buy side was probably looking for something flat to lower.
So a little bit better than than they were looking for. Now that being said, they did trim their fullear outlook. Um now they're looking for fourear comp sales to be flat from flat to up 1%.
So that would imply that 4Q is relatively flat. But, you know, similar to what we heard from Home Depot, they had about 100 basis point impact from hurricane activity um that was not replicated this year. So, again, if you were to back that out, it looks like the underlying trends in the business are pretty stable.
Um, you know, that being said, they're still grappling with the the same consumer uncertainty and, you know, the same weak housing market that their competitor is. So, you know, still challenges out there in the market. Drew, I I think I understand it correctly that Lowe's has a lower percentage of sales to professional contractors than does Home Depot.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- lowe's online sales
- tjx earnings outlook
- retail price competition
- commercial real estate leasing
- e-commerce demand
Companies and tickers mentioned
- LOW
- TJX
- NMRK
- Lowe's Cos.
- TJX Cos.
- Newmark
Watch the episode
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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