Episode summary
Metsera Tumbles After Novo Pulls Out of Bidding War With Pfizer | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Sam Fazeli, Mandeep Singh, Jennifer Bartashus
Summary
Metsera’s shares fell after Novo Nordisk dropped out of the bidding war, leaving Pfizer to raise its offer and buy the experimental weight-loss drug developer. The host and an analyst said Metsera’s asset package looked stronger after recent obesity data clarified questions about dosing and side effects, but the decisive factor was regulatory risk: the analyst said the FTC had signaled the Novo structure could face competition issues and might not close.
The discussion also turned to whether obesity is still the defining trade in pharma. The analyst argued that while obesity remains important in 2025 and likely 2026, other areas such as neuroscience, cardiovascular disease, and hypertension are drawing more attention. He said Novo is not “desperate,” but the market is rewarding companies like Eli Lilly that already have stronger obesity franchises.
On tech, the analyst said Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s 16.9% October sales growth was still solid but slowed because AI capex is crowding out non-AI hardware spending. He said Nvidia’s request for more TSMC supply shows demand remains strong, while TSMC’s scale and node leadership still leave little room for challengers. Tyson’s analyst said the company’s outlook remains heavily dependent on chicken, while beef losses should persist because herd rebuilding is slow and meaningful supply relief may not come until 2028.
Key takeaways
- The analyst said FTC concerns were the key reason Metsera ended the bidding war and Pfizer’s higher bid prevailed.
- The analyst argued Novo Nordisk is not desperate, but it still needs more obesity assets to compete with Eli Lilly.
- TSMC’s 16.9% October sales growth was slower, but the analyst said AI demand remains strong and non-AI spending is likely being displaced.
- The analyst said TSMC still dominates leading-edge chip manufacturing and sees no near-term rival capable of taking meaningful share.
- Tyson’s analyst said beef losses will likely persist and meaningful herd rebuilding may not show up until 2028.
Notable quotes
“the FTC had given Mera a call saying look if you go with that there is a risk it won't close”
“the market's favoring the drugs that Lily has got on the market today and to compete they needed to get some more”
“this deceleration is happening for a reason you know I would attribute it to their diversification of their business”
“we're not looking at a meaningful change in supply until 2028”
How the episode opens
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Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Looking at that news, Meter shares tumbled after Novo Nordics uh declined to further raise its offer for the US maker of an experimental weight loss drug, bringing a bidding war with Fizer to an end.
I like a good bidding war being a former banker. Uh Sam Fazelli joins us here, director of research for Global Industries. He covers all the healthc care stuff uh for Bloomberg Intelligence.
He's based in London. So, how good is this Metsera uh company, Sam, and and and their drug? How good is meta?
Because boy, it seemed like everybody wanted a piece of it. Yeah. So, Paul, before this last week, sorry, I've been off.
And you know what happens to your brain when you're off for a few days? Y um before last week which is called we had the obesity week right where my colleague Mike Shaw was at there was a little bit of confusion around how good their data was how good their assets were in the obesity space and some questions about can they really be dosed once a month if people wanted to do that do do we really know what the side effect profile is like given the the way they've disclosed so far and of course last week it cleared most of that up um the side effect profile file is the same as most of these GLP vials. You get some nausea in some uh tough cases.
You get some uh um vomiting, but those are early on and they get out of the way.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- biopharma deal dynamics
- weight-loss drug trials
- chip supply and ai demand
- semiconductor earnings
- retail staples food industry
Companies and tickers mentioned
- PFE
- NVO
- TSM
- NVDA
- TSN
- Metsera
- Pfizer Inc.
- Novo Nordisk A/S
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
- Nvidia Corp.
- Tyson Foods
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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