Episode summary
Micron Forecast Fails to Satisfy Investors After AI-Fueled Rally | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 15 min · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Jake Silverman, Geetha Ranganathan, Drew Reading
Summary
Micron shares fell after a beat-and-raise quarter because investors had already priced in a powerful AI-driven run-up. The analyst said the selloff reflected very high expectations, with the stock up about 95% year to date going into the report. He argued the real story is still strong fundamentals, especially rising demand for high bandwidth memory, data-center revenue, and AI-related storage, which are keeping the memory cycle alive longer than usual.
The discussion also said Micron’s business is being reshaped by AI in a way that constrains supply across the industry. As capacity shifts toward high bandwidth memory, supply for traditional DRAM products tightens and pricing can keep rising. The analyst said this dynamic may extend the upcycle well beyond the usual 7 to 10 quarters, with guidance implying at least 12 quarters and possibly through the next fiscal year.
Later, the hosts and analyst turned to Jimmy Kimmel’s return to ABC and the limited financial impact on Disney, and then to new-home sales, where the homebuilding analyst said August’s surge looked overstated and should be viewed cautiously because rates, incentives, and labor-market concerns are still shaping demand.
Key takeaways
- The analyst said Micron’s weak stock reaction was driven more by stretched expectations than by weak operating results.
- Micron’s AI exposure is increasingly tied to high bandwidth memory and data-center demand, which the analyst said supports further pricing strength.
- The analyst said the memory upcycle could last at least 12 quarters, longer than the typical 7 to 10-quarter pattern.
- The media analyst said Jimmy Kimmel’s return is a cultural issue for Disney, but late-night TV is a small financial contributor at about 5% of Disney revenue.
- The homebuilding analyst said August’s new-home sales jump was likely exaggerated by volatility, incentives, and shifting mortgage rates.
Notable quotes
“the stock has had a blistering run in 2025 more than doubling in value”
“I think it has a lot to do with just very high expectations coming into the quarter”
“investors are really looking at high bandwidth memory. Um, they're looking at AI”
“we're looking at uh based on the guidance last uh last night, at least 12 quarters”
“it generates roughly about $50 million in ad revenue. Compare that to a few years ago when it used to generate close to about 150 million”
How the episode opens
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Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Right now we want to go back to our uh interactive broker studio and bring in uh one of our very own experts and he is uh of course the expert on Micron and we want to talk about Micron because the stock is lower today despite a beat and raise quarter. Uh we do have with us Jake Silverman of Bloomberg Intelligence.
He's a semiconductor analyst and Jake I wonder how much of this disappointing price action today is tied to the fact that the stock has had a blistering run in 2025 more than doubling in value. Yeah. No, I think it has a lot to do with just very high expectations coming into the quarter.
Um, you know, stock being up uh 95% year to date going into the report last night just had a lot to do with it. Um, but overall, look, I mean, the fundamentals of the business remain very strong. I I think the commentary on the call last night from management was very positive.
Um, and so I think we're going to continue to see an upcycle in memory, at least for the near term. So, what what is the call here? What's the street looking for for this name?
Again, a stocks just, as you mentioned, ripped this year, up 94% year-to- date. What's the call here?
Yeah. No, I I mean, I think investors are really looking at high bandwidth memory. Um, they're looking at AI. Uh, they're looking at data center related revenue.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- micron earnings
- ai-fueled rally
- analyst forecasts
- us media tv return
- new home sales
Companies and tickers mentioned
- MU
- Micron Technology
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Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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