Nike Sees Weakness Persisting; US Decides Against Renewing USMCA | Bloomberg Intelligence

Nike’s turnaround is still underway, but the analyst said the company’s outlook remained cautious and that recovery in China will take time. She pointed to lower sales expected in the first half of the fiscal year, with China still down 17% in the quarter, and said the company needs 12 to 18 months to rightsize inventory and rebuild the brand there. She argued Nike has not lost its edge, but investors need patience while management pushes innovation, premium positioning and more local product for China. She also said the World Cup could provide a tailwind for Nike globally, especially in women’s and broader sportswear categories.

On energy, the guest said the Iran conflict has not fully normalized even though WTI crude was below $69 a barrel. She argued that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still far from normal, U.S. inventories are very low, and gasoline prices will likely ease only gradually. She said the White House cannot force lower prices without price controls, and warned that renewed conflict could keep prices sticky.

The EV discussion was more mixed. The analyst said global EV adoption is still rising, but the forecast has been cut for a second straight year, with the U.S. lagging because of regulatory setbacks. He said global EV sales should still reach 23.3 million vehicles this year, or 27% of passenger sales, but hybrids remain important because they hold value better and fit current consumer demand.

On trade, the guest said the U.S. decision to stop renewing USMCA and instead use annual reviews gives President Trump more room to pressure Canada and Mexico with tariffs. He said the pact still stands for now, but automakers and other importers should expect uncertainty and possible delays in investment.