Episode summary
Novo Next-Generation Obesity Shot Falls Short of Lilly Rival | Bloomberg Intelligence
Bloomberg Intelligence
· · 24 min · Hosts: Paul Sweeney, Scarlet Fu · Guests: Sam Fazeli, Michael Halen, Mary Ross Gilbert, Holly Froum
Summary
Novo Nordisk’s next-generation obesity shot, CagriSema, underwhelmed versus Eli Lilly’s rival, with trial data showing 20.2% weight loss after 84 weeks versus Lilly’s 23.6%. The guest argued the study was designed as a direct test and failed its hypothesis, giving Lilly an easy marketing win while leaving Novo looking behind in a market it helped pioneer. He added that the real differentiator may still be broader biology and future data on muscle loss and visceral fat, but there is no clear sign yet that Novo has a better mechanism coming.
The discussion then shifted to Merck’s plan to split its main pharmaceutical unit in two, which the guest framed as an internal reorganization rather than a likely spin-off. He said the move resembles AstraZeneca’s long-running structure and could help Merck sharpen R&D focus, especially if patent work suggests Keytruda’s cash flow could last to 2033 instead of 2029.
On retail, Domino’s Pizza’s stronger-than-expected comparable sales were linked to value pricing, stuffed crust, and expansion onto DoorDash and Uber Eats. The tariff segment covered possible margin relief for apparel retailers after the Supreme Court’s ruling, with the guest saying the legal fight over refunds and future tariff authority is still far from settled.
Key takeaways
- The guest said Novo Nordisk’s 20.2% weight loss result versus Lilly’s 23.6% means the trial failed its direct comparison test.
- The guest argued Eli Lilly now has an easier commercial story because it can point to beating Novo on weight loss.
- The guest said Merck’s two-unit structure looks like a pipeline-focused reorganization, not necessarily a public spin-off.
- The guest said Domino’s gains from value positioning and third-party delivery access, where its own delivery economics are far better.
- The guest said apparel retailers may see only 20 to 50 basis points of tariff relief after mitigation measures, not full relief.
Notable quotes
“the trial was set up, Scarlet, to test one drug against the other and it failed, right”
“this is handed the gift to Eli Liy. Now once this data is published, they can go out there and say, "Well, look, we've beaten Wiggoi”
“I think this just recogn reorganizing the business in a way that works best for the pipeline”
“it probably costs a big player like Domino's, it would probably, you know, for them to deliver it themselves, it probably cost them half of what it would cost”
“we estimate that the savings could be anywhere from 20 to 50 basis points, maybe a little more than that”
How the episode opens
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Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Within the pharma space, Novo Nordisk, the ADR's American depository receipts down by double digits. In fact, lower for a fifth day, losing about 16% today.
And this is after its next generation obesity shot, Kaggri Sema, delivered less weight loss than Eli Lilly's rival treatment. Let's bring in Sam Fiselli. He is our director of research for Global Industries and senior pharmaceuticals analyst on what's happening here.
And Sam, I mean, we've been keeping a close eye on Noah Nordis because it was a pioneer in weight loss drugs, but it appears that it has really fallen behind Eli Liy and continues to fall behind even with this nextgen obesity shot. The data shows a 20.2% weight loss after 84 weeks compared with Eli Lilly's 23.6% weight loss. I mean, that sounds like it's pretty small differences.
Is that an unqualified failure? Well, the trial was set up, Scarlet, to test one drug against the other and it failed, right? So that's you you know when they start these trials, they have a hypothesis.
We think our drug is as good as this one and they set the hypothesis up. They do the right number of patients to prove that kagrima is as good as ters appetite. It didn't prove that.
What it does, I mean, I don't really care about these 23% 25%. A lot of people are happy with the weight loss they get and they maintain the weight loss. That's what they care about.
This rapid weight loss, a very large weight loss may matter for much more obese patients potentially.
From the episode’s captions: roughly the first two minutes, lightly cleaned. Keep watching on YouTube →
Topics
- next-gen obesity shots
- weight-loss market competition
- restaurant earnings
- tariff impact on retail margins
- trump tariffs legality
Companies and tickers mentioned
- NVO
- LLY
- DPZ
- URBN
- Novo Nordisk
- Eli Lilly & Co.
- Domino’s Pizza
- Gap
- Aritzia
- Urban Outfitters
Watch the episode
Summary, takeaways and quote selection by Octagon. Quotes are short excerpts; the full conversation is in the episode.
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